Natural Gas Futures Test Both Sides of Even; More Negative Trades for West Texas Cash

  • December Nymex settles at $4.262, up 1.4 cents; January down 0.7 cents to $4.292
  • Midday data “continues to suggest a milder break will set upa and span much of the country Dec. 11-14,” says NatGasWeather
  • Lower 48 production topped 86 Bcf/d mark last Thursday: Genscape
  • West Texas posts more negative trades; constraints likely due to associated gas growth, says RBN’s Ferguson
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NatGas Futures Slide on Risks for Warmer Mid-December; West Texas Cash Hits Negative Territory

  • December down 6.0 cents to $4.249; January down 5.6 cents to $4.299
  • “Once December 2018 prices failed to break through resistance of $4.75-4.80 for the fourth time...prices went into freefall,” says NatGasWeather
  • “Near-term warm trends and rapidly increasing mid-December warm risks have us keeping sentiment slightly bearish”: Bespoke Weather Services
  • West Texas spot trades reach negatives, a first for U.S.
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Natural Gas Futures Fall Ahead of Holiday Despite Bullish EIA Report

  • December Nymex futures down 7.2 cents to $4.452 after trading in wide range; January down 4.4 cents to $4.477
  • “Cold blasts are favored to return across much of the country Dec. 4-7,” says NatGasWeather
  • EIA reports 134 Bcf withdrawal, well above estimates; market rallies off report then sells off
  • California, West Texas spot prices slide ahead of long weekend
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Triple-Digit Storage Withdrawal Predicted as Wild Ride Continues for Natural Gas Futures

  • December Nymex settles at $4.523, down 17.7 cents; January down 19.1 cents to $4.521
  • “It was another surprising volatility remains incredibly elevated,” says Bespoke
  • Recent volatility “driven by positioning, short-covering, stop-outs and the follow-through of algorithmic trading on the movements of both of the former,” says Energy Aspects
  • Top-day production estimates down slightly Tuesday to 85.2 Bcf/d, including drops in Texas, Permian and Rockies: Genscape
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 134 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Nov. 16
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Natural Gas Futures Continue Volatile Run as Market Sorts Out Fair Value

  • December Nymex up 42.8 cents to $4.700; January up 42.1 cents to $4.712
  • “We’re going to have this sorting out between $4.929 and $3.882,” says Powerhouse’s Thompson
  • Midday Global Forecast System trended colder, showing shorter, weaker mild break late this week and into the weekend: NatGasWeather
  • California prices climb as first in series of cold fronts expected
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Long-Range Cold Risks Help Spark Natural Gas Futures Rally to Cap Wild Week

  • December Nymex up 23.4 cents to $4.272; January up 24.8 cents to $4.291
  • “Things have been moving so quickly, even intraday technical indicators are having a hard time keeping up,” says NGI’s Rau
  • “If there is one high confidence statement at this stage it is that a significant gap can be expected Sunday,” says Bespoke
  • West Texas spot prices fall to levels seen prior to NGL pipe outage
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Milder Trends, Plump Storage Build Prompt Sharp Reversal in ‘Irrational’ NatGas Futures Market

  • December down 79.9 cents to $4.038; January down 85.5 cents to $4.043
  • Volatile market “completely irrational and dangerous if caught to the wrong side,” says NatGasWeather
  • Outlook for 2019 still bearish as supply seen outpacing demand growth: TPH
  • SoCal Citygate spikes as maintenance expected to impact flows: Genscape
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Few Signs of Let-Up for Natural Gas Futures Bulls; West Texas Cash Pulls Back

  • December Nymex surges 73.6 cents to $4.837, highest front month settlement since February 2014; January up 75.1 cents to $4.898
  • Managed money going long natural gas, short Nymex WTI, says Societe Generale
  • If forecasts show cold continuing late Nov. 29-Dec. 2 “weather sentiment will remain bullish into the foreseeable future,” says NatGasWeather
  • West Texas spot prices lower as EPNG lifts strained operating condition
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 39 Bcf storage injection for the week ending Nov. 9
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