Mercados

November NatGas Slides, But Losses Pared After Midday Buying Spree; Spot Gas Softens

  • Nymex natural gas futures fall as much as a dime before buyers step in to trim losses to just 1.7 cents
  • Mild weather in store for mid-November combined with strong production and loose storage data to put the ball back in market bears’ court
  • Low prices at back end of futures curve catching the attention of at least one producer, perhaps foreshadowing a larger pullback in production growth
  • Spot gas prices tank as mild fall weather saps demand
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November Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back Despite Bearish Storage Data; Spot Gas Slides

  • Traders cautious about mild November weather patterns, send Nymex natural gas futures higher
  • Energy Information Administration reports 58 Bcf storage build, but implied flows of 63 Bcf reflect even looser market
  • Stocks remain more than 600 Bcf below historical levels
  • Spot gas tumbles despite cold fronts, pipeline maintenance events
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Mid-November Warming Sends NatGas Futures Falling; Sweeping Cold Snaps Drive Up Spot Gas

  • November natural gas moves lower after latest weather data shows milder trends through mid-November
  • Demand should still be enough to not significantly improve persistent storage deficits
  • Back-to-back cold fronts continue to drive up spot gas prices in Midwest, Northeast
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 58 Bcf storage build, but reclassification pushes implied flow to +63 Bcf
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Projected Break in Cold, Record Production Drive Dramatic Natural Gas Sell-off; Mexico Braces for Willa

  • Natural gas futures tumble as volatile weather outlooks show milder temperatures for early November
  • Market observers not clear whether breakdown of cold is lasting trend or temporary break in cold snaps
  • Production reportedly reached 84.43 Bcf/d on Saturday, a new high
  • Spot gas strong in eastern United States on cold front; Mexico bracing for Hurricane Willa
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November NatGas Futures Rebound on Conflicting Weather Models; Approaching Front Drives Spot Gas

  • Volatile output in two most commonly used weather models leads to 5-cent gain for November natural gas prices
  • Market expected to look for more consistency next week on whether cold will linger through the end of October/early November
  • Balances remain loose enough to send prices lower at first signs of warmer risks
  • Spot gas prices jump in key demand regions as significantly colder weather set to send temperatures plunging
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Colder-Trending November Lifts Natural Gas Futures; Stalled Front Fuels Spot Gas

  • Natural gas futures stage late-session rally following latest weather data showing colder start to November
  • Colder weather expected to widen natural gas storage deficits even more before winter
  • Stalled cold front, Canadian import cuts drive up spot gas prices
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 81 Bcf storage injection for the week ending Oct. 12
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Mild Breaks in Coming Cold Snaps Enough to Stall Natural Gas Rally; Low Temps Drive Spot Gas

  • Winter natural gas prices stall as traders wait for confirmation of milder breaks between October cold snaps
  • November/December outlooks are more bearish, but low storage could leave market vulnerable in colder-than-normal winter
  • $3 gas likely to remain in place until deficits start to erode
  • Spot gas prices strengthen again, with Permian Basin pricing seeing largest gains
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Lingering Cold, Worsening Storage Picture Drive Up Natural Gas Winter Prices

  • Natural gas winter contract boosted by cold snap that is expected to continue through remainder of October: November rises 8 cents
  • Chillier weather pattern expected to push storage deficits to more than 650 Bcf and possibly 700 Bcf before start of winter
  • Weather outlooks show warmer weather returning for November/December before lasting winter cold arrives
  • Spot gas prices strengthen as cold air descends on Rockies, Plains and heads east
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