Following volatility in the previous session, natural gas futures were steady early Wednesday as the latest forecasts showed no major changes to the outlook for May temperatures. Taking over as the front month, the June contract was trading at $1.963/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET, up 1.5 cents.

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The expiration of the May contract brought with it “a couple of wild sessions,” according to Bespoke Weather Services. Heading into Wednesday’s trading, there was “not much new” from forecasts.

The pattern “continues to exhibit a cool lean from the Midwest to East over the next couple of weeks, while the West stays warm, including some impressive early season heat in the Southwest,” the forecaster said. “National demand is projected to be a little above normal through the first half of May…but this is a low demand time of year,” meaning degree day totals “are not significantly moving the needle yet.”

Maxar’s Weather Desk similarly predicted below normal conditions for the eastern half of the Lower 48 and above normal temperatures in the West out in the May 9-13 time frame.

“The pattern becomes less amplified in time, and moderation is in the mid to late period as a result,” the forecaster said.

For next week, Maxar’s latest forecast underwent a warmer change for the Rockies, Midwest and South.

Meanwhile, the market has been left to weigh future production cuts against weak near-term fundamentals, according to Bespoke.

“Production declines seem inevitable, which is of course bullish ultimately, but we are still not convinced that it is bullish here at the front of the curve, as supply/demand balances are still very loose even with production lower,” Bespoke said.

Genscape Inc.’s estimates continue to show declines in U.S. industrial natural gas demand, with consumption down more than 12% year/year during the week ending April 25. This extends a decline that began in late March, coinciding with measures to stem the spread of Covid-19, analyst Dan Spangler said.

Energy Information Administration data show U.S. industrial demand averaging 22.4 Bcf/d in April 2019, “implying a more than 2.5 Bcf/d reduction so far this April,” Spangler said. “Demand is still near the five-year average; however, this is a bit misleading, as U.S. industrial demand has grown considerably over the past five years.

“…The reductions in demand are not evenly spread across all sectors. Big industrial demand sectors like metals and ethanol have dropped sharply as construction and automotive sectors slow — both for production and gasoline consumption. Meanwhile, the nitrogen fertilizer industry has been relatively stable.”

June crude oil futures were up $2.12 to $14.46/bbl at around 8:45 a.m. ET, while May RBOB gasoline was trading 4.3 cents higher to around 71.0 cents/gal.