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Natural Gas Production From Big Seven Plays to Reach 74.06 Bcf/d in November, EIA Says

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is projecting production from the nation's seven most prolific onshore unconventional plays -- the Anadarko, Appalachian and Permian basins, and the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara formations -- will increase in November, continuing a nearly two-year trend, with natural gas output forecast to reach 74.06 Bcf/d and oil production an estimated 7.71 million b/d.

In its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), released Monday, the EIA said it expects total gas production from the the seven key regions this month to reach 73.1 Bcf/d and oil production to be 7.61 million b/d.

The plays have been on a roll since January 2017, when EIA estimated total gas production was 47.51 Bcf/d and total oil production was an estimated 4.54 million b/d.

Natural gas production in November is expected to increase the most in the Appalachian Basin, which includes the Marcellus and Utica shales. Production is expected to reach 29.77 Bcf/d, up from 29.45 Bcf/d in October.

EIA said it also is forecasting increased production in the Anadarko (7.4 Bcf/d from 7.31 Bcf/d), Bakken (2.56 Bcf/d from 2.53 Bcf/d), Eagle Ford (7.24 Bcf/d from 7.12 Bcf/d), Haynesville (9.74 Bcf/d from 9.63 Bcf/d), Niobrara (5.21 Bcf/d from 5.136 Bcf/d) and Permian (12.13 Bcf/d from 11.89 Bcf/d).

Oil production is expected to increase in six of the seven plays. More than half of the increase is expected to come from the Permian, which is projected to hit 3.55 million b/d in November from 3.5 million b/d in October.

Oil production is expected to reach 572,000 b/d in the Anadarko, 132,000 b/d in Appalachia, 1.35 million b/d in the Bakken, 1.44 million b/d in the Eagle Ford and 626,000 b/d in the Niobrara. Haynesville production is expected to remain flat at 43,000 b/d.

The number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells across the Big Seven ended September at 8,389, an increase of 192 from August, according to EIA.

The bulk of the DUCs, and the largest increase in DUCs, came in the Permian, which rose 194 in September to 3,528. DUCs increased by 31 in the Anadarko to 1,045 and by 18 in the Eagle Ford to 1,584. DUC numbers decreased from August in Appalachia (minus 22), Bakken (minus 11), Haynesville (minus 3) and Niobrara (minus 15).

The productivity of new oil wells in the Big Seven plays is expected to increase in November to 668 b/d, according to the DPR. New-well gas production per rig is also expected to increase to 3.79 MMcf/d.

EIA compiles the DPR using recent U.S. data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in output from existing wells to provide estimated changes in production.

 

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