November natural gas futures were trading 1.5 cents higher at $3.245/MMBtu shortly before 9 a.m. ET Thursday, with the market looking ahead to the release of Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage data that could help determine whether the recent rally will finally stall.

EBW Analytics Group CEO Andy Weissman pointed to mixed price signals for natural gas Thursday morning, including a cumulative 6 Bcf increase day/day in projected demand over the next three weeks based on the firm’s latest forecasts.

“There are signs, however, that the Alaskan Ridge, which has caused space heating demand to soar in the West and brought record late season air conditioning demand in the East, could start to break up by Day 15, leading to a return of more normal weather,” Weissman said. “If this occurs, the rally could stall.”

A bearish storage report from EIA could also see natural gas give back some of its recent gains, he said. Last week’s bullish storage surprise, with a build roughly 20 Bcf below market consensus, is still fresh on the minds of traders eagerly awaiting the 10:30 a.m. ET release of this week’s report.

Estimates have been wide-ranging for the report reflecting data for the week ending Sept. 28, from 71-103 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 21 market participants had a range of 71 Bcf to 99 Bcf, with a median build of 88 Bcf.

Kyle Cooper of IAF Advisors projected a 92 Bcf build, while EBW estimated a build of 84 Bcf and Bespoke Weather Services estimated an 88 Bcf build. Intercontinental Exchange EIA financial weekly index futures settled Wednesday at a build of 93 Bcf.

Last year, 81 Bcf was injected into storage for the same week, while the five-year average injection stands at 90 Bcf.

“It was warmer than normal over the Southwest, East and Southeast, while cooler than normal over the central U.S. and portions of the northern U.S.” during this week’s report period, NatGasWeather said. “Our algorithm sees it just a touch bearish at 91 Bcf, although with tricky accounting factors carrying over from last week’s bullish miss.”

Meanwhile, the overnight weather data was mixed, with the European model easing slightly off cold trends from Wednesday afternoon’s run, while the Global Forecast System trended slightly colder for mid-October, according to NatGasWeather.

“What the markets will be watching closest is just how much cooling will arrive over the central U.S. and then Midwest and Northeast Oct. 14-17 and where the weather models have been inconsistent,” the firm said. “We expect another volatile trading session today with price direction dependent on the results of the morning storage report and then on midday weather trends for the third week of October.

“Prices are up nearly 25 cents on the week, but it’s difficult to know if the markets really see this as being fairly priced, or whether the rally has gotten too hot too fast and is due for a pullback.”

Shortly before 9 a.m. ET, November crude oil was trading 50 cents lower at $75.91/bbl, while November RBOB gasoline was down about 1.4 cents to $2.1243/gal.