November natural gas futures were trading about 7.4 cents higher at around $3.082 shortly after 8:30 a.m. ET Monday, with forecasters noting warmer medium-range trends in the East but with the potential for more cold later this month.

Guidance over the weekend added some heating demand towards mid-October, but demand expectations dropped off in the medium-range with a ridge across the East trending stronger than previously forecast, according to Bespoke Weather Services.

“The result will actually be decent lingering cooling demand from the Ohio River Valley up into the Northeast in the six- to 10-day period but a major reduction of heating demand keeping” gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) “solidly below average,” Bespoke said.

GWDDs should remain below average the next couple weeks, “but a cold shot in the Midwest will gradually bleed into the South and East later in Week 2. The cold shot does not appear especially intense…but it will result in some colder than average weather across some key population centers into Week 3.”

The firm pointed to these long-range cold risks and a dip in production data over the weekend to help explain the early-morning rally Monday.

“We do expect production to quickly be revised and rebound back to record highs in the coming few days, making us skeptical that this rally will be able to maintain…any move into $3.10 still looks likely to fail as we struggle to see the catalyst for prices sustaining above $3.05,” Bespoke said.

NatGasWeather similarly noted “minor changes” to overall heating and cooling demand expectations after the weekend data, including warmer trends in the southern and eastern United States and cooler trends over the West and Plains. The firm called it a “neutral to a touch bearish pattern where deficits in supplies will only slightly improve over the next three weeks, likely remaining above 600 Bcf.

“…One fact remains. Record production has still yet to improve deficits by a single Bcf since early spring even though production is up an impressive 10 Bcf/d year/year,” NatGasWeather said. The front month contract has yet to “convincingly take out $3 and hold it, but with deficits remaining at multi-year highs, any decent sell-offs are likely to find buyers until they show signs of meaningfully improving. The focus this week will be on when stronger cold shots show better promise into the Midwest and Northeast, which likely won’t be until near or after Oct. 15.”

November crude oil was trading about 21 cents higher at around $73.46/bbl shortly after 8:30 a.m. ET Monday, while November RBOB gasoline was up fractionally to around $2.0908/gal.