November natural gas futures were down about 5.2 cents to roughly $3.004/MMBtu shortly after 8:30 a.m. ET Friday as overnight forecasts failed to offer much support following Thursday’s storage-driven rally.

Bespoke Weather Services revised lower its gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) expectations for the next two weeks based on the overnight guidance, though the firm did note increased long-range cold risks.

“The result is a slight net decline in GWDDs overnight, as ridging looks to hold on across the East and keep temperatures there above average even as the Midwest sees several shots of colder weather,” Bespoke said. “We are beginning to see increasing signs that around mid-October or into the second half of the month we could have the first cold shot to pull heating demand above average and swing the East, but we continue to expect any cold to be fleeting as the base state still favors eastern ridging even with more of a transition towards an El Nino.”

The firm said it expects any tests of resistance around $3.07-3.10 for the November contract to fail, with a potential test of support around $2.98-3.00 possible heading into the weekend.

Coming off Thursday’s “quite bullish” Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report “we could see the November contract initially buoyed this morning as cash closed a bit above where the contract is trading,” Bespoke said. “However, weather-driven demand is less impressive today, and with looser burns and production still near highs it is hard to see cash running all that much more.”

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a 46 Bcf build into Lower 48 gas stocks for the week ended Sept. 21, compared to a five-year average build of 81 Bcf and a 64 Bcf build recorded a year ago.

Total working gas in underground storage as of Sept. 21 stood at 2,768 Bcf, putting inventories 621 Bcf (18.3%) below the five-year average with only a few weeks left in injection season. Year-ago inventories stood at 3,458 Bcf, according to EIA.

“Compared to degree days and normal seasonality, the 46 Bcf injection is about 2.2 Bcf/d tight versus the five-year average,” Genscape Inc. analyst Margaret Jones said. “The tightness in this week’s stat is being driven by an unseasonably strong power burn. A late summer heat wave coincided with a large week-on-week decrease in nuclear gen…Given the necessary increase in thermal gen, coal also picked up a smaller than expected share week-on-week.

“…Relative to the previous week, total power generation was up almost 28 average GWh. Collectively, nuclear and renewable gen were down about 7 average GWH week/week (w/w) as wind gen was up about 1 average GWh and nuclear generation was down about 8 average GWh w/w. Coal was up around 6 average GWh w/w, and gas generation was up almost 28 average GWh for an estimated 5.5 Bcf/d more gas burn w/w.”

The factors driving up gas demand during this week’s storage report period aren’t likely to continue as cooling degree days decrease and unplanned nuclear outages return to service, according to Jones.

Shortly after 8 a.m. ET, November crude oil was trading slightly higher at around $72.13/bbl, while October RBOB gasoline was close to even at around $2.0826/gal.