Natural gas futures were trading close to even as of around 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday following Monday’s resistance-breaking rally, with the prompt month contract up about 0.9 cents to around $3.047/MMBtu as forecasters noted the potential for more cold to arrive into the second week of October.

The November contract, set to take over as the front month after October’s expiration Wednesday, was trading around $3.038, up about a penny from Monday’s settle.

NatGasWeather said overnight models advertised slightly more demand this coming weekend but less demand from Monday through Thursday (Oct. 1-4).

“There’s increasing potential for stronger cool blasts arriving across the northern U.S. Oct. 5-9,” a pattern “most datasets were more convincing with besides the European model, which still has cooling into the northern U.S., just not much over the East,” NatGasWeather said. “Monday’s sharp rally occurred despite milder temperature trends over the weekend and Lower 48 production again setting record highs, suggesting gains were more about expectations for deficits to exceed 600 Bcf after” Thursday’s weekly storage report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The firm said the year-on-five-year average deficit could potentially remain above 550 Bcf into early November.

EBW Analytics Group CEO Andy Weissman said the forecast heading into Tuesday’s session was similar to Monday’s, outside of some small increases in both projected heating and cooling demand over the next three storage report weeks.

“More importantly, though, while uncertainty is high, model runs are providing increased support for cooler-than-normal weather in the eastern half of the U.S. extending further into October,” Weissman said. “With resistance for the October contract now smashed at $3.02 and the potential for a bullish” EIA storage number Thursday, “the likelihood of further gains is high. Resistance at $3.09-3.12 could be tested before trading of the October contract ends” on Wednesday.

Turning to the soon-to-be prompt month November contract, from a technical standpoint “it is reverse or else for the bears” following Monday’s price action, according to ICAP Technical Analysis analyst Brian LaRose.

“Peg $3.096-3.119 as the highest levels consistent with any corrective structure off the lows,” LaRose said. “If the bears can somehow carve out a top (right now that does not look promising) there is still a chance natural gas slides back down to the $2.704 neighborhood. No reversal, no top. Looking for a run to $3.220-3.227-3.258 next in this case.”

At around 8:30 a.m. ET, November crude oil was trading about 26 cents higher at around $72.34/bbl, while October RBOB gasoline was up fractionally at around $2.0607/gal.