September natural gas futures were set to open Thursday about 1.3 cents lower at around $2.943/MMBtu, with the market turning to the upcoming release of government storage data as it weighs lean stockpiles and lingering heat against plentiful production.

Estimates for the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 10:30 a.m. ET storage report have been pointing to a build in line with the five-year average. A Reuters survey of 22 market participants had injection estimates ranging between 41 Bcf and 55 Bcf, and a median of 48 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey reflecting 11 market participants’ projections ranged between 40 Bcf and 55 Bcf, with an average of 49 Bcf and a median of 50 Bcf.

On the high side of estimates, IAF Advisors’ Kyle Cooper expected a 54 Bcf injection, as did EBW Analytics Group. Genscape Inc. estimated a 49 Bcf build, while Intercontinental Exchange futures settled at a 50 Bcf build. Last week, 33 Bcf was injected into storage, leaving inventories at 2,387 Bcf, which is 687 Bcf below year-ago levels and 595 Bcf below the five-year average.

A year ago, the EIA reported a build of 45 Bcf into gas stocks, while the five-year average build stands at 52 Bcf.

“A notable decline in week-on-week (w/w) power burns coincided with modest but steady gains in production,” Genscape senior natural gas analyst Rick Margolin said of the storage report week. Genscape’s supply and demand model showed production averaging 81.1 Bcf/d, up 0.7 Bcf/d w/w.

“Some of the supply-side gains from production were very slightly diminished by a 0.1 Bcf/d w/w decline in imports from Canada, paced by sizeable reductions in weekly imports to the Pacific Northwest and New York,” he said. “On the demand side, power burns retreated from the previous week and were estimated to have averaged 36.8 Bcf/d, but some of that decline was made up for by a 0.3 Bcf/d w/w increase” in sendout from liquefied natural gas exports “and a 0.2 Bcf/d increase in exports to Mexico.”

EBW Analytics CEO Andy Weissman pointed to a mix of bullish and bearish factors influencing the front month heading into Thursday’s report.

“With hotter weather returning soon and the storage deficit projected to reach new highs for the injection season in early September, further gains cannot be ruled out,” he said. “With summer nearly over, however, any rally is likely to be modest — if it occurs at all.”

Given that “most analyst predictions clustered within a narrow range” around 50-54 Bcf, Weissman said, “The odds of a major storage surprise are lower than in most recent weeks.”

Turning to the forecast, Bespoke Weather Services said overnight guidance was largely unchanged from Wednesday, continuing to show “cooler trends in the medium-range, with the first burst of heat early next week not appearing to be as sustained.” But the firm also noted “continued warm trends in the long-range that showed heat lingering a bit longer.

“The pattern does look to be one with gradually easing heat risks into Week 3, but we saw no clear sign of forcing across the Pacific that would flip the pattern markedly colder, as instead we keep a bias of temperatures slightly above average.”

October crude oil was trading about 5 cents lower at around $67.81/bbl, while September RBOB gasoline was trading about a penny lower at around $2.0581/gal.