November natural gas is set to open 3 cents lower at $2.96 Monday morning as forecasts call for offsetting cooling and heating loads. Overnight oil markets slumped.
Weather conditions didn't change much overnight although some cooling has appeared in the East. Through the end of the week Natgasweather.com said, "Temperatures have cooled over the northeastern U.S. to open the new trading weekas a reinforcing cool blast sweeps through Monday with highs of 40s and 50s Weather systems will also impact the West Coast with rain and slight cooling. Over the central and southern U.S., high pressure will dominate with warmer than normal conditions and highs of 70s and 80s. Another weather system will track into the Midwest and Northeast late this week with another round of showers and cooling for another modest surge in natgas demand, but still not exceptionally strong."
The following week, "temperatures will be above normal over the central and southern U.S. as high pressure dominates. Weather systems into West Coast and East will bring showers and near-normal temperatures. The trend is warmer than normal with the central and southern U.S. near normal.”
Industry consultant Genscape sees a demand picture closely approximating that weather scenario. "Lower 48 demand should be supported early in the week by cold in the Northeast and some cooling loads in Texas and the Desert Southwest, but will then retreat with mild temperatures blanketing the country by midweek. Genscape meteorological forecasts have New England and Appalachia population-weighted HDDs getting as high as nine HDDs above normal by Wednesday, then backing off for the remainder of the week. Those forecast temps push our New England demand forecast to a peak of 2.78 Bcf/d by Wednesday, then it falls to a low of 2.05 by Saturday. Appalachia follows a similar curve, topping out at 12.78 Bcf/d on Wednesday and hitting a low of 7.91 Bcf/d by Saturday. Midwest temperatures are forecast to be at to slightly-warmer than seasonal norms this week. While this holds our Midwest demand forecast fairly flat, we are watching for potential demand destruction from forecast heavy rains and possibly flooding in the upper Midwest states.”
Cooling loads may kick in along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast markets as temps are forecast in the CDD range for most of the week. Similarly, Texas and Desert Southwest regional forecasts show CDDs in double-digits for the week.
In overnight Globex trading December crude oil fell 63 cents to $50.22/bbl and December RBOB gasoline dropped a cent to $1.4994/gal.