Total natural gas and oil production from seven of the nation's largest unconventional plays will decline slightly next month compared with October, continuing a downward trend begun in April, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Total natural gas production from the plays will be an estimated 44.88 Bcf/d in November, a 294 MMcf/d decline from 45.18 Bcf/d in October, EIA said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR).
Three basins will experience increases, according to the DPR. The Haynesville will produce an estimated 6.52 Bcf/d, compared with 6.49 Bcf/d in October; the Permian 6.80 Bcf/d, compared with 6.77 Bcf/d; and the Utica 3.08 Bcf/d, compared with 3.02 Bcf/d. But those increases will be outweighed by declines in the Marcellus, which EIA said will produce 15.89 Bcf/d in November, compared with 16.11 in October; the Bakken, 1.60 Bcf/d, compared with 1.61 Bcf/d; the Eagle Ford 6.72 Bcf/d, compared with 6.86 Bcf/d; and the Niobrara, 4.27 Bcf/d, compared with 4.32 Bcf/d.
EIA also expects slight declines in oil production, with the seven-basin total for November estimated at 5.12 million b/d, compared with 5.21 million b/d in October. Oil production will be lower in three basins -- the Bakken (1.16 million b/d, compared with 1.18 million b/d in October), Eagle Ford (1.37 million b/d, compared with 1.44 million b/d) and Niobrara (372,000 b/d, compared with 392,000 b/d) -- and will be up in the Permian (2.03 million b/d, compared with 2.01 million b/d). Oil production in three lesser-producing plays -- the Haynesville, Marcellus and Utica -- will be nearly unchanged, according to the DPR.
EIA released the first DPR in October 2013 (see Shale Daily, Oct. 22, 2013) but didn't forecast month-to-month declines until seven months ago (see Shale Daily, Sept. 15; April 13).
The productivity of new wells in the plays is expected to remain virtually unchanged in November, EIA said. On a rig-weighted average, new-well gas production per rig in the plays will be a combined 2.43 MMcf/d in November, compared with 2.44 MMcf/d this month, and new-well oil production per rig will be 465 b/d, unchanged from this month.
EIA revised the Utica and Marcellus rig count for the latest DPR "due to improperly accounting for four Ohio counties, which had been assigned to the Marcellus region in the calculation of average rig productivity. The revised data increase the rig count in Utica and decrease the count in Marcellus by the same amount. The result mostly affects the rig productivity calculation, but the production forecast is affected as well," EIA said.
EIA also revised downward Marcellus liquids production to align the West Virginia crude oil production volumes to production data reported on the Form EIA-914 survey.