The expiring October natural gas futures contract was trading about 1.2 cents lower shortly before 9 a.m. ET Wednesday at around $3.070/MMBtu, with forecasters pointing to further mild trends in the overnight guidance. The November contract was trading about 1.3 cents lower at around $3.045.

From a technical standpoint, the November contract is set up to test resistance around $3.09-3.13, according to EBW Analytics Group CEO Andy Weissman.

“Upward momentum remains strong, and the pattern during the last 18 months is that the front-month contract (still October today) nearly always posts gains on its last day of trading,” Weissman said. “Overnight, however, the six-to-15 day forecast shifted significantly warmer again, due partially to developing Tropical Storm Rosa off Central America. The predicate for the current rally (a cold start to October) is rapidly fading, and a string of 100 Bcf-plus injections is likely starting next week. Near-term, the rally could stall.”

Forecaster Radiant Solutions said its latest six-to-10-day outlook from Monday through next Friday (Oct. 1-5) trended warmer from the Midwest to the East, “aligning with model trends over the past 24 hours.”

“This comes in a still lower than usual confidence period across the Northern Tier, where models are inconsistent along a boundary separating unseasonably cold conditions to its north and above to much above normal temperatures to its south,” Radiant said.

As for the 11-15 day outlook (Oct. 6-10), Radiant said its latest forecast Wednesday included a mix of changes, “trending cooler in the West and warmer in Central” compared to Tuesday’s outlook.

NatGasWeather viewed the overnight data as bearish trending, with cool shots into the northern United States looking less impressive for the first half of October in a continuation of milder trends from Tuesday’s data.

“There remains decent potential for stronger cool blasts across the northern U.S. Oct. 5-8, although the data continues to see the core of the coldest air over the Rockies and Northern Plains, thereby only providing glancing blows across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,” NatGasWeather said. “This would keep the warm ridge over much of the southern and eastern U.S.”

Despite the bearish trends in recent guidance, storage deficits should remain “very slow to improve” after likely increasing with this week’s Energy Information Administration storage report.

Looking at the technicals, during the market’s recent run higher, the October contract picked up its first wave of momentum when it managed to break resistance around $2.95-2.97 that had formed throughout much of August, according to NGI’s Patrick Rau, director of strategy and research.

“That momentum helped it break above its previous reactionary high of $3.045 posted on Oct. 23, 2017. Slow stochastics are above 70, meaning this contract is overbought, but considering October goes off the board Wednesday, that probably won’t matter,” Rau said. “More telling is what happens with the November contract once October goes off the board. November 2018 also posted is previous reactionary high of $3.085 on Oct. 23, 2017, and that resistance level held when the November contract stalled at $3.064 in June.

“That is well above its current 20-day Bollinger Band, and the contract is squarely in overbought territory, so there could very well be a short-term pullback in November before traders are ready to test that pesky $3.085 level again.”

As of 8:37 a.m. ET, November crude oil futures were trading about 45 cents lower at around $71.82/bbl, while October RBOB gasoline was down about 1.4 cents to around $2.0533/gal.