September natural gas prices were set to open slightly higher Tuesday, up 1.3 cents at $2.873 ahead of market open, despite some minor changes to weather guidance that trended cooler overall in the most recent models runs.

Weather models overnight Monday showed slightly warmer short-range trends with heat lasting through the week, helping add to gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) totals even as medium-range cool risks lingered across all guidance, Bespoke Weather Services said. European guidance was mostly unchanged, showing a slightly less warm pattern in the longer range to cancel out short-term heat. The heat continued to look focused across the northern tier of the country, with the South cooler than average, the weather forecaster said.

Further out, the firm sees an increased risk for an eastern trough into week 3 that should limit cooling demand overall, “something climate guidance shows well and makes us think risk is to the cooler side” for later weather model runs.

For now, September natural gas prices were up a few ticks Tuesday morning “as we continue to see a relatively supportive strip help put off declines that we still see as likely through the week,” Bespoke chief meteorologist Jacob Meisel said.

EBW Analytics analysts agreed, indicating September natural gas is poised to probe higher Tuesday morning as the prompt month on Monday closed slightly above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Meanwhile, market bulls are hoping the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report a fourth straight much smaller-than-expected injection on Thursday. The market’s weakness Monday, however, suggests any further gains will be muted, EBW said.

“The hottest days in August will soon be behind us and hot weather anomalies will start to fade by days 11-15. Absent another major storage surprise, prices are likely to head lower soon,” EBW CEO Andy Weissman said.

For his part, Meisel said the upcoming storage print is likely to be less supportive than the EIA’s reported print on Aug. 2, and noted that production is continuing to recover as well. “Put together then, we continue to see risk skewed lower and expect at least a test of $2.80 sometime this week, with $2.75 being in play over the next week or two.”

For that to happen, though, the entire strip must break as cash prices have been strong enough to keep futures prices supported. “…so winter contracts must break for our move lower,” Bespoke said.

Crude oil futures were trading about 60 cents higher at $69.60/bbl, and RBOB Gasoline futures were trading nearly 3 cents higher at $2.093.