Warmer-than-normal temperatures will dominate in the Northeast from September through November, while cooler-than-average conditions will be in place in parts of the Southeast and along the Pacific Coast, according to forecaster WSI Corp. of Andover, MA.
“We expect a return to warmer-than-normal temperatures in September across the eastern U.S. as the cool and wet pattern of recent weeks finally relents,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “The strongest current climate signal is the very cold ocean temperatures in the north Pacific, and this cold water should help to drive the general atmospheric pattern this fall towards a very warm regime in the northeastern U.S. There is still significant uncertainty regarding the evolution of El Nino/La Nina, although the recent emergence of very cold subsurface water in the equatorial tropical Pacific would seem to reduce the chances of a transition to El Nino later this fall.”
In its Energycast Outlook for September WSI forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures in both the Northeast and Southeast, with cooler-than-normal air situated over the rest of the country, except Wisconsin, Michigan and East Texas.
Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said injections to gas storage are likely to be slightly higher than normal in September due to the lower probability of late-season heat in most areas. Cooler temperatures during the month should moderate power prices everywhere but the Northeast, where the warmer temperatures forecast would be moderately bullish for power prices.
WSI’s forecast for October calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures to remain in place in the Northwest, while warmer-than-normal temperatures will cover all the rest of the country except California. According to ESAI, injections are likely to be above normal as warmer temperatures delay the need for heating. Loads will be moderate due to shoulder season temperatures, so power prices in most regions will be more dependent on generator-planned maintenance programs, ESAI said.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures will remain in place over the Northwest, North Central, South Central (except Texas) and Southwest (except California) regions in November, while cooler-than-normal air will move into the South Central (except east Texas) and Northwest (except Idaho, Montana and Wyoming) regions, WSI said. Natural gas demand for early season heating should be below average due to the expected warmer temperatures across the country’s northern tier, and power prices in most regions will tend to be related to generator planned maintenance programs through late November, ESAI said.
The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year norm (1971-2000). The next forecast, for October-December, is scheduled to be issued Sept. 23.
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