With portions of the Northeast still digging out from a weekend blizzard and another large winter storm looming over the Upper Midwest, Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. released a forecast on Monday — the first official day of winter — calling for temperatures across almost all of the country to average cooler than normal from January to March.

WSI is forecasting 2,475 gas-weighted heating degree days during the three-month period, approximately 2.5% more than January-March 2009 and about 2% more than the 1971-2000 average.

“The combination of the current El Nino event, cold north Pacific and weakened stratospheric vortex are favorable for a continuation of widespread below-normal temperatures across the U.S. for the upcoming season,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “There may be a relaxation of the current cold pattern in the Northeast during January, followed by a return to more consistent cold in February and March.”

WSI’s forecast for January calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northwest and the Northeast except Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The rest of the country can expect colder-than-normal temperatures, WSI said.

In a statement issued in conjunction with WSI’s outlook, Paul Flemming, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) director of power and gas, said lower gas demand across the warmer northern regions in January will moderate the demand effects of cooler temperatures in much of the rest of the country.

“Warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast will marginally lower electrical loads and associated gas demand for heating,” Flemming said. “Delivered gas prices in the constrained areas of the Northeast markets should see less volatility with warmer temperature expectations.”

By February colder-than-normal temperatures will be in place across the entire country, with the exception of Washington, WSI said.

“Natural gas demand is likely to be very strong with high residential and commercial heating demand as well as increased demand from the power sector,” Flemming said. “Natural gas inventories are likely to see significant draws in February under this cold weather outlook. Residual fuel oil prices continue to be high relative to gas, although under severe cold conditions delivered gas prices could spike above fuel oil prices in some areas, particularly in the Northeast. In the West, much-colder-than-normal temperatures will increase the bullish outlook for gas in February.”

While colder-than-normal temperatures will continue to dominate the East in March, the rest of the country can expect warmer-than-normal weather, according to the WSI forecast.

“Colder weather in March will be bullish for power prices in the Northeast, especially in areas that start spring generator maintenance early in the season,” Flemming said.

WSI’s outlook was in line with forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (see Daily GPI, Oct. 16) and AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi (see Daily GPI, Oct. 15). NOAA and Bastardi each called for colder weather across portions of the East through February, and each said the nation’s winter weather will be significantly affected by El Nino. But NOAA said it expected the current El Nino — the warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean — to strengthen and persist through the winter, while Bastardi said El Nino will fade over the same period.

Turning its back on “group think” winter weather forecasts, WxRisk.com has said it expects the Midwest — not the East — to experience the coldest temperatures relative to normal this winter (see Daily GPI, Oct. 27).

The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year norm (1971-2000). The next WSI forecast, for February-May, is scheduled to be issued Jan. 26.

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