For the next three months, seasonal forecaster WSI Corp. predicts temperatures that are cooler than normal in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and northern and central Plains, with warmer than normal temperatures elsewhere. The three-month seasonal outlook, which references a standard 30-year norm between 1971-2000, was issued Tuesday.
“We expect the bulk of the cool air to retrogress westward during the fall, becoming centered over the Pacific Northwest by November,” said WSI’s Todd Crawford. “The Southeast should be relatively warm throughout the period.”
For September, WSI is forecasting warmer than normal temperatures in most of the country, especially Florida, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and the Gulf Coast. Only Northern California, the Southern California coast and the North Central states — especially Nebraska and Iowa — will have cooler than normal temperatures, it said.
“A warmer than normal outlook for September in the southern parts of the country will be bullish for electric loads and will provide incremental demand for the natural gas markets,” WSI reported. “Gas injections to storage have been high this year, so higher demand in September will not necessarily translate into higher natural gas prices.”
In October, WSI forecasts cooler than normal temperatures in the Northeast, with the exception of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, and in the Northwest, with the exception of western Washington and Oregon. It will be “much cooler” in the North Central states, WSI predicted. However, the Southeast, South Central and Southwest will be warmer than normal for the month, it said.
“October is a shoulder demand month for power and gas and variations in weather have much less impact on the natural gas and power prices. If temperatures are much cooler than normal in late October, some early season natural gas demand could kick in; however, inventories are high and early demand should not rock the market.”
Finally, in November, WSI is forecasting warmer than normal temperatures in the Northeast, along with the Southeast, especially Alabama and Mississippi, and the South Central states, especially Texas. Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for the North Central states and the Southwest, while the Northwest will be “much cooler” than normal.
“WSI’s forecast for November indicates warmer than normal temperatures in the eastern states. As such, heating demand for natural gas in the Northeast states could be very moderate. This would be offset slightly by cooler than normal expectations in the North Central states and slightly higher gas demand. Power prices are unlikely to be affected by shifts in weather and will be impacted more by seasonal generator maintenance.”
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its Seasonal Outlook twice monthly.
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