Spring will be warmer than usual in most of the eastern and central United States this year, but colder-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate further west, according to forecasters at Andover, MA-based Weather Services International (WSI).

A northward transfer of tropical air, enabled by recent strong winter storms, “have likely triggered atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic sector heading into early March,” favoring very cold conditions in the first few days of this month, said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford. A “pattern flip” will promote warmer temperatures across much of the central and eastern United States as Spring progresses, he said. An early blast of summer heat is unlikely, though, unless there is significant relief from the long-term drought in the central United States.

This month, WSI expects the Northeast to be warmer than normal and the North Central area to be slightly warmer than normal, with colder-than-normal temperatures forecast for the rest of the country.

“The risk of a generally cold start to March could help to support natural gas and power prices, particularly in the Northeast, where delivered gas prices have been very firm this winter,” said Energy Securities Analysis Inc. (ESAI) Senior Analyst Chris Kostas.

“Henry Hub natural gas prices are likely to finish the winter very subdued due to robust supplies. While colder weather is expected west of the Rockies and in the Pacific Northwest, aggregate North American gas demand should finish the winter heating season very soft; this could help to soften natural gas prices from their current levels. With natural gas production expected to remain strong through the winter, a mild March should leave natural gas inventories above 2,000 Bcf again this year.”

Working gas in underground storage stood at 2,229 Bcf for the week ending Feb. 28, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Gas Storage Report, down 171 Bcf from the prior week and 307 Bcf lower than a year ago, but still 308 Bcf (16%) more than the five-year average.

By April, WSI expects temperatures to average warmer-than-normal across all of the country except the Northwest and coastal California — an early spring forecast that would soften considerably North American gas demand.

“With gas demand low in March and April and robust inventories expected to begin the injection season, we believe natural gas prices are likely to remain soft and stable in April,” Kostas said. “Henry Hub gas price volatility is likely to remain relatively low in April as well, though implied market heat rates are likely to firm as generation maintenance continues to increase throughout the month.”

WSI’s temperature forecast map remains unchanged for May, with most of the country expected to have warmer-than-normal temperatures. “While power prices are likely to remain subdued throughout the country due to relatively low natural gas prices, implied market heat rates are likely to firm as gas-fired generation continues to steal market share from struggling coal-fired generators,” Kostas said.

The coming spring could rank among the top-10 warmest on record, but that warmth isn’t expected to be as widespread or as extreme as last year, according to AccuWeather.com’s long-range forecast team (see NGI, Feb. 4). “While the spring will start out cooler and unsettled in the Northeast, milder weather may arrive by April and May,” the forecasters said.

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