Cash prices fell at all points Friday, depressed by forecasts of cold weather moderating in some areas by the end of the weekend, a 42.7-cent plunge in December futures a day earlier and the usual weekend drop of industrial load.

One source said it is also likely that more buyers are supplanting spot gas purchases with storage withdrawals as the heating season nears the end of its first month. Although expectations of a small pull in the week ending Nov. 14 were thwarted by Thursday’s report of a 16 Bcf injection, it is considered much more likely that the upcoming report will reflect the season’s first net withdrawal due to the frigid conditions dominating weather in the East and a few sections of the West last week.

Losses ranged from a couple of pennies or so at two points to about 70 cents, with the Rockies taking most of the biggest hits as regional heating load was due to wane slightly.

Although the cash market had negative prior-day screen guidance Friday, that will change to support Monday after the December futures contract rebounded by 16.4 cents Friday (see related story).

The Northeast was the rare region where temperatures were predicted to keep moving lower during the weekend. However, although conditions would be getting milder Saturday in the Midwest and South, lows in both areas would still be around freezing or less. And the Midwest could expect a new cold front Sunday that would move on to the Northeast Monday, leaving lake-effect snowfalls around the Great Lakes in its wake that would last through Tuesday and Wednesday, The Weather Channel (TWC) said.

The Rockies were due for a slight warm-up during the weekend, but overnight lows would still be below freezing in the 20s. However, in general temperatures were forecast to be average or above average across the West Saturday through Wednesday, according to TWC.

The Northern Natural Gas bulletin board illustrated how Upper Midwest temperatures would get warmer during the weekend only to be taken lower again by the cold front. The normal system-weighted temperature at this time of year is 30 degrees, a posting said, while the pipeline projected Friday’s average of 21 rising to 30 Saturday and 34 Sunday before sinking to 28 Monday.

PG&E issued a systemwide high-inventory OFO for Saturday, but it had minimal effect on the PG&E citygate, which saw one of Friday’s smallest drop of only a couple of pennies. Malin, down a little more than a dime, felt more of the OFO impact.

East Tennessee Natural Gas was experiencing the opposite problem, saying that if shippers did not do something to reduce large daily due-pipe imbalances, it would need to issue a Balancing Alert OFO.

Although the South was predicted to see modestly higher temperatures over the weekend, a regional utility buyer said it was still about nine degrees below normal in his area Friday and his company could use some more warmth to avoid using too much storage early in the season. He didn’t expect to buy any baseload gas for December, saying the utility could draw on storage to supplement its winter term contracts.

The buyer noted that because of Dec. 1 falling on the Monday after Thanksgiving, Tuesday (Nov. 25) trading would be for Wednesday through Sunday flows, and Wednesday deals would be for the following Monday only. Having only one day to cover will make things easier Wednesday, when many traders are in a hurry to finish business and leave early for the long holiday weekend, he said. But it will be considerably more difficult Tuesday, especially for utilities, because they will be required to estimate loads for the next five days. “Having storage helps out a lot” in those cases, he added.

The National Weather Service (NWS) sees below-normal temperatures departing the Midcontinent, most of the Midwest and the eastern end of the South during the Thanksgiving weekend, leaving behind normal conditions. In its six- to 10-day forecast for the Nov. 26-30 period, NWS looks for below-normal readings south and east of a line running westward from the southern coast of Maine to arc around all of New York state before curving southwestward into central Louisiana. The agency predicts above-normal temperatures north and west of a line running eastward from the northern edge of California to eastern Nebraska before turning to the north through the central Dakotas to the Canadian border.

The trend of declining drilling rig activity in recent months was reversed again last week. According to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/), the number of rigs actively seeking natural gas in the U.S. rose by 13 to 1,511 in the week ending Nov. 21. Two rigs left the search in the Gulf of Mexico but 15 were activated onshore, Baker Hughes said. Its latest tally is down 1% from a month ago but 6% higher than the year-earlier level. The declining trend also was interrupted by a gain of 23 rigs during the week ending Oct. 31 (see Daily GPI, Nov. 4).

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