In spite of weather maps showing temperatures in the mid 80s or greater in the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. and the previous day’s rebound of 8.3 cents by July futures, cash prices fell at nearly all points Friday. Concerns about the growing storage surplus (and its down-the-road implications) along with the weekend loss of industrial load obviously commanded the most market influence.

A few locations that were flat to about a nickel higher were concentrated in the Gulf Coast, where coping with major cooling load was a factor. Otherwise, losses ranged from 2-3 cents to about a dollar. The Florida citygate was again an anomaly in recording the dollar drop, despite Florida Gas Transmission extending an Overage Alert Day through at least Friday. Excluding the Florida number, declines topped out at nearly 35 cents.

July futures provided positive guidance for Monday’s cash market after expiring 10.5 cents higher at $3.949 Friday (see related story).

Peak temperatures in the 90s and 100s were to continue prevailing during the weekend across most of the southern half of the U.S. Opposing trends would be in effect in northern market areas, however. After a midweek cooldown into the 80s, the Midwest was forecast to start seeing highs in the 90s again Saturday, but a cold front would dampen mercury levels in much of the region by the weekend, according to The Weather Channel. Meanwhile, temperatures would be going down in the Northeast, with New York City expected to see a low 80s high Saturday and Boston likely to experience a cool 70 high, Weather Central said.

Torrid highs in the 100s were due to continue in the desert Southwest and interior California, but cooler conditions around 80 or less were forecast for the Rockies, while the rest of the West was expected to be warm to mild.

Rocco Canonica of Bentek Energy confirmed that storage gas was being withdrawn in Texas last week to cope with high temperatures in the vicinity of 100, which helped dampen price increases that might have been expected from power generation load. There was 1.6 Bcf/d in “implied” storage withdrawals in Texas Thursday, he said. He explained that his company can’t “see everything” because intrastate pipes are not required to report storage levels, but said Bentek has a model that pretty well represents the total picture. Texas storage draws were projected at 1.2 Bcf for Friday, he said.

Despite the off-season withdrawals in Texas, there’s no doubt that the volumes will be able to refill easily, Canonica said. Bentek still expects record-high storage levels entering the coming winter, he said.

Midcontinent high temperatures were expected to remain in the 100s through Saturday before a “slight break” into the mid to high 90s Sunday, said a regional producer. He said his company sells “quite a bit to OGE and they need all [the natural gas] they can get right now.” Enogex prices are seeing unusually high premiums for July baseload, he added.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest said a cooler weekend was due in her area, but conditions would still be “warmish.” Warm weather would continue through the coming week, but some overnight temperatures in the 50s were in the forecast, she said. She said her company paid nearly identical basis for July of plus 10 cents into Consumers Energy and plus 9.5 cents into MichCon; normally Consumers is at a larger premium.

The National Hurricane Center did not expect a tropical wave south of the western end of Cuba to experience any significant development before it reached Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early Saturday, but accorded it a medium chance (30-50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone “once it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.”

After a rare blip upward in the previous week, the number of drilling rigs searching for gas in the U.S. resumed its decline during the week ending June 26, falling by five to 687, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). Two rigs were deactivated in the Gulf of Mexico while the onshore tally fell by three, Baker Hughes said. Its latest count was down 2% from a month earlier and a whopping 55% less than the year-ago level.

The National Weather Service (NWS) sees a shifting outlook during the Fourth of July weekend. In its six- to 10-day forecast for the July 1-5 period posted Thursday afternoon, the agency predicted below-normal temperatures for all of the Midwest and Northeast extending as far south as northern Tennessee and most of North Carolina. Except for normal conditions in the southern end of California and the southwestern corner of Arizona, NWS expects above-normal readings throughout the West and as far east as the southern halves of Arkansas and Mississippi.

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