Forecast changes over the weekend pointed to lighter weather-driven demand in the next two weeks, and natural gas futures were trading lower early Monday. At around 8:30 a.m. ET, the June Nymex futures contract was off 2.7 cents to $2.540/MMBtu.
The weekend weather data slightly lowered demand expectations for the 15-day outlook period compared to Friday’s forecasts, according to Bespoke Weather Services. The forecaster said the pattern toward the middle of the month has shifted cooler, reducing cooling demand but without adding significant heating demand, as it’s “getting too late in the season for colder anomalies to contribute much” in terms of overall demand.
“We do still have some above normal demand this week thanks to more mid to upper 80s highs in the southeast quadrant of the nation before dropping off as we head into the upcoming weekend and especially into next week,” Bespoke said. Longer term, “we could see a better chance for some increase in heat again around the start of June, but low confidence this far out.”
Radiant Solutions also highlighted cooler trends in its six- to 10-day and 11-15 day forecasts Monday.
The six- to 10-day period is expected to be unsettled, according to Radiant, “with rounds of low pressure tracking along the Southern Tier and the East Coast” resulting in cooler changes to the outlook. “Below normal temperatures are behind the storm track and include the Southwest, Texas and Midwest. Belows also accompany onshore flow around mid-period in the East. The coolest anomalies are in the form of much belows from the Southwest to the Central Plains in the early stages.”
As for the 11-15 day period, Radiant called for below normal temperatures “associated with yet another upper level low tracking into the Southwest, and belows are under a trough early around the Great Lakes and East as well. Any above normal coverage takes focus in the Rockies to start the period but migrating toward the Midwest in the second half. Confidence remains on the lower end on poor skill of late and cooler model projections.”
Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas deliveries got a boost over the weekend thanks to volumes ramping up at the Cameron LNG facility, according to data from Genscape Inc.
“Scheduled nominations headed to Cameron LNG continued to increase over the weekend, with deliveries to the facility hitting a maximum-to-date of 268 MMcf/d on Sunday,” Genscape analyst Allison Hurley said. “Scheduled deliveries for today’s gas day are currently at 220 MMcf/d as of evening cycle nominations. Feed gas deliveries to Cameron LNG have steadily increased since early April.”
After FERC authorized the introduction of feed gas to the Sempra Energy-backed facility earlier this year, the first observed delivery nominations occurred April 10, according to Hurley.
“Similar to the trains at Sabine Pass LNG, each of Cameron LNG’s Trains 1-3 will eventually pull in 650-800 MMcf/d when running at full capacity,” the analyst said.
June crude oil futures were trading 50 cents lower at $61.44/bbl at around 8:30 a.m. ET, while June RBOB gasoline was down about 1.7 cents to $2.0091/gal.
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