It was only fitting yesterday that the futures market groundlower amid lack of strong fundamentals. After all, Monday was theconclusion of just the second July in the last 100 years in whichNew York City did not reach 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Even WashingtonD.C., which is known for its mostly intolerable summer heat andhumidity was limited to just one day of 90-plus mercury during themonth.

The September contract was the big loser yesterday, slipping 7.1cents to finish at $3.774, a whopping 67 cents below where it beganJuly.

But just like the old saying goes: If you don’t like the weatherin the East, “wait a minute,” traders will be looking for a changein the weather pattern. And while it will take more than a minute,that change may not be far off.

According to the latest six- to 10-day forecast releasedyesterday by the National Weather Service, the East can expect awarm-up to more seasonal temperatures, with above normal readingsat the extremes in Florida and Maine. Meanwhile, SouthernCalifornia can expect to remain hotter than usual.

From a technical standpoint, Ira Hochman of New York-based TrotTrading Corp. remains bullish in the long-term, but cautious in theshort-term. While he expects the market will eventually rightitself to retest highs set back in June, he believes there will berough waters in the meantime. “As long as we hold $3.62 on thedownside, the market will likely chop sideways as traders attemptto build another base on which the next rally will be mounted,” hesaid. “The upper limit of this trading range could be as high as$4.40, but it’s not going to be the same one-way ride we had lasttime. Prices are going to check back and forth. The volatility ishere to stay for a while.”

But like any good trader, Hochman leaves himself with an out.”If [the market basis September] is unable to hold $3.62 on thedownside, I look for prices to retest $3.19-25.

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