With the latest model trends favoring more warmth in the United States over the next two weeks, natural gas futures retreated in early trading Friday. The February Nymex contract was down 7.8 cents to $2.651/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET.

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In its latest forecast early Friday, Bespoke Weather Services said the outlook shifted warmer for a third straight day, pointing to “the trend in modeling to slow down the demise” of the positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation signal, associated with warmth in the Lower 48.

“This not only has warmed up the nearer-term outlook but has delayed the attempt in the 11- to 15-day to generate a true cold air mass up in Canada,” Bespoke said. “The look of the pattern toward Jan. 20 still is one that is consistent with colder outbreaks, in at...