Hurricane Irene, which was upgraded to a Category Three hurricane Wednesday morning, is expected to continue to strengthen as it moves away from the Bahamas, turning to a more northerly track and more closely approaching the coastline in the Mid-Atlantic or New England sometime this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The projected path of the year’s first hurricane is further east than forecasters had expected Tuesday and any landfall will be significantly further north than previously forecast (see Daily GPI, Aug. 23).

On Wednesday afternoon Irene was about 215 miles southeast of the Bahamas and was moving northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, according to NHC. The hurricane was expected to turn toward the north-northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night.

“Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Irene could become a Category Four hurricane by Thursday,” NHC said.

On Wednesday the NHC was also tracking an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, which the forecaster said had a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Friday. Another low-pressure system, which was located about 1,200 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, was given only a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

WSI Corp. on Wednesday increased its 2011 Atlantic hurricane forecast, saying it now expects a total of 15-18 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four of them Category Three or greater, to form this year. In its previous tropical forecast, WSI had said it expected a maximum of 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic Basin (see Daily GPI, July 27).

“Before Irene this season had been characterized by a slew of weak/moderate tropical storms. To date, we have already had nine named storms and we’re still two to three weeks away from the midpoint of the season,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford. “Because of this we had no choice but to increase our named storms forecast from 15 to 18, and the current pace suggests that even this number may be too low.”

The Gulf of Mexico, which has so far this year been spared the brunt of any significant tropical activity, may be under the greatest threat of hurricane landfall as the season progresses, Crawford said.

AccuWeather.com forecasters earlier this month predicted a ramping up of tropical activity (see Daily GPI, Aug. 12) and WeatherBELL Analytics chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi last week said he expected tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Basin to increase, with multiple hurricanes forming by mid-September (see Daily GPI, Aug. 17). A series of tropical forecasters, including WSI, AccuWeather.com (see Daily GPI, April 1), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (see Daily GPI, Aug. 5), Colorado State University (see Daily GPI, June 2) and MDA EarthSat (see Daily GPI, May 18) have predicted above-average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Basin.

©Copyright 2011Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.