Natural gas and oil demand has risen since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, but exploration and production (E&P) executives in first quarter conference calls clung to capital discipline, favoring shareholder returns over boosting output.

With the quarter now in the rearview mirror, a myriad of questions remains to determine the direction of U.S. activity this year by the E&Ps and oilfield services (OFS) companies. Inflation, labor and supply chain issues are delaying some activity. However, will shunning Russian gas and oil lead U.S. companies to ramp up?

“The reality is that energy markets were already tightening from supply and demand fundamentals before this Russian action, and the risk premium now embedded in commodities, including oil and gas, has returned with a...