NGI Weekly Gas Price Index

Prompted by weather forecasts through the week of cooler temperatures to come, weekly natgas prices posted healthy gains. Severe storms and cold were forecast to pummel the Northeast, and many market points in New England made gains close to $1.

Outside the Northeast weekly natural gas prices showed broad strength as only five points in California fell into the loss column, and only modestly at best.

It may have been a short four-day trading week, but that didn’t deter the weather bears from seizing full control and sending weekly natural gas quotes tumbling.

Both physical and financial natural gas prices suffered what seemed to be a never ending succession of weather outlooks calling for unusual winter warmth during the week that ended Feb. 17. All points followed by NGI fell into the loss column and the NGI Weekly National Spot Gas Average tumbled 20 cents to $2.75.

Right on cue the decline in the spot natural gas futures for the week ended Feb. 3 correctly predicted a decline in weekly natural gas cash prices for the week ended Feb. 10. A week ago spot natural gas futures tumbled 32.8 cents to $3.063, and for the week ended Feb. 10 the NGI Weekly National Gas Average fell 6 cents to $2.95.

The natural gas market went looking for any incursion of cold air it could find for the week ended Feb. 3 and came up empty handed. It seemed as though trading during the week ended up being a never-ending succession of weather models turning more moderate and prompting lower pricing.

Physical natural gas bulls and bears went at each other only sparingly for the week ended Jan. 27, and most points advanced but only by a few pennies.

As the nation inaugurated its 45th President Friday, a new era of risk and uncertainty enveloped the electorate, with highly contentious if not polarized factions on either side of the major issues facing the new Trump presidency. The natural gas market faces its own set of challenges and uncertainties, with both bulls and bears armed with persuasive arguments.

The weekly change in spot futures has a way of correctly forecasting the direction in the NGI Weekly Spot Gas Average for the following week, and this week was no exception. Last week, the February contract fell a stout 43.9 cents and for the week ended January 13 the NGI Weekly Spot Gas Average gave up 33 cents to $3.22.