NGI Mexico GPI

Even given the many unknowns related to the market impact of the coronavirus pandemic on both sides of the border, Mexico will remain a key destination for U.S. natural gas producers for years to come, according to analysts.

Natural gas futures gave up ground Monday as worries mounted about declining international demand and lower feed gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. The July Nymex contract settled at $1.774/MMBtu, down 7.5 cents day/day. August fell 6.9 cents to $1.871.

While the impact of Covid-19 on U.S. natural gas prices remains a wildcard, supply/demand changes point for the strip to move lower this year before 2021 ushers in “extremely bullish” prices, Raymond James & Associates Inc. said Monday, adding year/year (y/y) pipeline exports to Mexico should increase in 2020 in spite of the pandemic.

Natural gas futures capped the week in positive territory, but the weight of bloating storage inventories and U.S. export concerns were on full display. The July Nymex gas futures contract hit a $1.763/MMBtu intraday low and traded in the red throughout most of Friday’s session before settling the day at $1.849, up 2.2 cents from Thursday’s close. August was up 2.1 cents to $1.940.

Despite vowing to stick to production goals, Mexico’s Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) produced significantly less oil and gas than it had planned at its so-called “priority fields” in the first quarter, according to new information made available by hydrocarbons regulator Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH).

Natural gas futures continued to slide Thursday as the latest government storage data failed to reflect enough tightening in the supply/demand balance to support prices. The July Nymex contract, on its first day in the prompt-month position, settled 5.9 cents lower at $1.827/MMBtu. August fell 5.3 cents to $1.919.

Editor’s Note: NGI’s Mexico Gas Price Index, a leader tracking Mexico natural gas market reform, is offering the following question-and-answer (Q&A) column as part of a regular interview series with experts in the Mexican natural gas market.

Natural gas futures took a step back Wednesday, quickly erasing the gains mounted following the holiday weekend. With export demand remaining a threat and eyes on a plump storage injection, the June Nymex gas futures contract expired 7.1 cents lower at $1.722. July, which takes over the prompt-month position on Thursday, fell 5.9 cents to $1.886.

Mexico’s Petróleos Mexicanos’ (Pemex) difficult year has been made harder as workers struggle with a coronavirus outbreak that has hit the state oil company particularly hard.