Forward Look

After a month of weekly gains, natural gas forward prices slammed the brakes as the latest weather models indicate the end of winter is fast approaching. April forward prices fell an average 7 cents from March 7-13, while May and the summer strip (April-October) each fell less than a nickel, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Natural gas forward prices rose for a fourth consecutive week as frigid air blanketed much of the country and with more cold air possibly returning later this month, renewed storage fears emerged. April prices climbed an average 7 cents from March 1-5 while May and the summer strip (April-October) each tacked on an average of 6 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

For the third week in a row, natural gas forward prices strengthened across the curve as what is expected to be one of the coldest starts to March in U.S. history could drive current storage deficits far lower before the start of the traditional injection season.

With cold weather set to linger through at least the first part of March, natural gas forward prices strengthened across most of the country during the Feb. 14-20 period.

After a volatile start to the year, natural gas forward prices quieted down during the Feb. 7-13 period as mild weather hit much of the United States.

With daytime temperatures reaching close to 80 degrees in Texas and the 60s in parts of the country that dipped into the single digits just days ago, the only direction for natural gas forward prices for the Jan. 31 to Feb. 6 period was down. March plunged an average 55 cents during that time, and April tumbled an average 28 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Even as temperatures in the country’s midsection plunged as much as 20 degrees below zero in some areas at mid-week, natural gas forward prices brushed off the brutal cold as only a temporary blip in an otherwise milder outlook for February. February forward prices fell by an average 32 cents between Jan. 24 and 29, while March prices dropped an average 9 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Even as the natural gas market is on the brink of yet another polar front expected to begin on Friday, natural gas forward prices plunged in striking fashion between Jan. 17 and 23 as warmer risks for the first part of February showed up in earlier weather models. February natural gas prices dropped 62 cents on average, and March fell 30 cents on average, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

A rebound in natural gas forward prices that began last week kicked in high gear during the Jan. 10-16 period as frigid air finally returned to the United States after a month-and-a-half of exceptionally mild weather.