Natural gas futures hovered close to even early Friday as analysts mulled evidence of tight balances and as forecasts continued to tease the potential for somewhat colder temperatures to develop later this month. The January Nymex contract was up 1.7 cents to $3.831/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET.

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Updated forecasts early Friday trended slightly colder but continued to show an overall temperature outlook that was “biased very warm,” according to Bespoke Weather Services.

“Any notable shift in the pattern remains focused on the end of the month, something we still think is on the table, given the shift in tropical forcing,” Bespoke said. Such a shift could bring “a step change from this high-end warmth to something variable, closer to normal on the national level, with...