Warm

Due to warm winter weather in certain regions last month,increased fuel switching and industrial slowdowns, the countryconsumed 140 Bcf less natural gas than was anticipated in January,which led to much lower spot gas prices towards the end of themonth, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA)Short-term Energy Outlook for February.

Buoyed by private forecasts that cast doubt on governmentforecasts calling for a warm up, along with several constructivetechnical features, natural gas futures erupted higher yesterdaymorning as weak shorts exited their newly acquired positions. TheFebruary contract finished 77.7 cents higher on the day at $8.966after reaching a high at $9.189.

Capping a 12-day, 45% price increase, natural gas futures reversed lower yesterday as traders locked in profits amid technical and fundamental price uncertainty. The December contract took the sell-off squarely on the chin, dropping 46.7 cents or 7.5% to close at $5.798. The out months also felt the sting as the winter strip (Dec.-Mar.) tumbled 37.8 cents to $5.537 and the 12-month strip retraced 29.9 cents to $4.821.

Warm weather in its key market areas intensified a turbulentyear for Avista Corp., the company said last week, and its fourthquarter earnings will reflect it.

For the second trading session in a row, natural gas futureswere hit with a wave of selling pressure Monday, as bears basked inthe glow of forecasts calling for continued above-normaltemperatures across much of the country. After showing earlypromise last week in trading up to $2.485, the January contract hassince slipped to new life-of-contract lows, closing at $2.224yesterday. Activity was with 69,325 contracts changing hands.

Prices failed to maintain the upward momentum that had begun theweek, slipping lower by a nickel to a dime at nearly all pointsTuesday. Traders were unable to ignore the cumulative negativedemand effect of more than 40 cities setting all-time hightemperature records for the month of November over the previousweek. And although one marketer said the screen had little bearingon day-to-day cash pricing, the nickel-plus drop in futuresprovided no support for cash.

Warm weather forecasts and the large separation between cash andfutures prices spoiled the nice rally futures traders had goinglate last week. Prices opened down a nickel, made slight gains andthen slid the rest of the day. After opening at $2.600, Decemberposted a mid-day high at $2.635 and then collapsed to a low of$2.520. It settled down 12.5 cents at $2.524. January lost 10.7cents to settle at $2.681, and February slipped 8.5 cents to endthe day at $2.640/MMBtu.

Warm temperatures in major eastern cities and apprehension aboutthe possibility of “another bullish storage report” gave bulls thereason to buoy the market higher yesterday, and they did notsquander the opportunity. Buying, led mainly by commercial traders,sent the July contract up to a retest of its previous open outcrysession high of $2.41 before settling at $2.407. Estimated volumewas 73,884.

KN Energy warned investors last week that warm temperatures,high storage levels, poor processing margins and reduced gastransportation throughput during the first quarter took a bite outof earnings and could continue to plague the company for the restof the year.