Upward

The healthy year-over-year natural gas storage surplus could be slimmed down rapidly this winter — putting upward pressure on natural gas prices — if the 2007 Farmers’ Almanac weather forecast holds up. “Shivery is not dead,” editor Peter Geiger said, alluding to the winter weather forecast in the latest edition of the 188-year-old publication.

While the pace of exploration and production (E&P) company mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is expected to remain brisk in 2006, the recent upward credit rating momentum in the sector has been dampened by uses of excess cash flow to buy back stock and pay premium prices for assets and by liberal use of debt leverage to fund M&A, Standard and Poor’s Ratings Service (S&P) said in a new “Industry Report Card: U.S. Oil and Gas.”

The continuance of heavy heating load and a major prior-day screen spike were sufficient to propel prices further upward at most points Friday. However, prospects for a bit of moderation in cold weather in several areas, the typical slump of industrial demand over a weekend and the easing or lifting of OFOs and similar pipeline constraints (see Transportation Notes) allowed a few instances of flat or softer numbers to remain in the market.

Prices rallied at all points Wednesday from the prior day’s overall softness as widespread heating load reasserted itself as the driver of an upward-looking market. Forecasts of virtually no let-up in frigid temperatures, along with Wednesday’s screen advance of 21.1 cents, portend further cash gains Thursday.

Cash prices again relied on the continuing spread of cold weather and prior-day screen support to keep the overall market moving upward Friday. However, unlike the solid advances recorded in the first two days of December aftermarket trading, several flat to lower points — primarily in the West — surfaced in quotes for weekend flows.

January natural gas kept the week’s upward momentum rolling Friday from the get-go. After opening at $13.150, the prompt month climbed slowly until approximately 1 p.m. EST, when it exploded higher to settle at $13.931, up 90.4 cents on the day.

Alberta oilsands projects will continue to contribute to upward pressure on natural gas prices as virtually the only industrial sector left in North America where consumption is still rising, Canada’s National Energy Board predicts.

Bowing to unrelenting upward pressure on wholesale natural gas prices, the Oregon Public Utility Commission Thursday approved sizable retail rate increases for the state’s three major private-sector natural gas utilities, ranging from 13.5% to 26.8%.

“Broad upward price pressure” and changing market dynamics were among the leading highlights of a 255-page 2004 State of the Markets Report released last week by FERC’s Office of Market Oversight and Investigations (OMOI).