Typically

The average annual impact from hurricanes on Gulf of Mexico (GOM) oil and natural gas production is “relatively modest,” and the impact on supply is “typically short-lived,” according to an analysis of 45 years of data by energy consultant IHS.

The July Fourth holiday only delayed by a day the inevitable whiplash that gas futures typically cause on Wednesdays. Thursday opened with bang as August futures gapped about 8 cents higher at the opening bell, but the contract proceeded to do a nosedive in anticipation of another large storage refill. When the American Gas Association reported the ninth 100+ Bcf storage injection in 10 weeks (105 Bcf), futures plummeted to a new low of $3.040. However, the contract encountered surprising support there and managed to rebound to $3.136, down only 6.5 cents for the day.

Don’t put your duct tape and plywood away just yet. The lull inthe Atlantic hurricane season finally broke last week with TropicalStorm Bret and Tropical Depression Four throwing a one-two punch tothe gas market and triggering a more than 30-cent jump in NymexHenry Hub futures prices, which broke $3 early on Friday.Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and renowned Colorado State University forecaster Dr.William M. Gray both recently reiterated their predictions that thehurricane season will be a whopper despite the early lull.

“Orderly” and “quiet” are not words that typically describe thenatural gas futures market-especially during hectic expiration-daytrading at Nymex. However, yesterday they were fitting descriptionsof a market that was only able to inch higher amid light commercialshort-covering. The June contract closed out its tenure as theprompt month with a 2.6-cent gain to settle at $2.226.