Tropical

While the 26th named tropical storm this year is raging far out in the Atlantic, the natural gas industry needs to look out for the 27th blast of turbulence, which will hit when consumers get their first big heating bills of the season, according to Stephen E. Ewing, vice chairman of DTE Energy. “We’re in the calm before the storm,” and face a “turbulent future marked by unprecedented high prices.”

As the energy industry and the states of Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi continue to sort through the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ophelia off the coast of Florida has some forecasters wondering whether they might be suffering from Deja vu. The forecasting gurus aren’t sure of the storm’s path yet, but agree it’s one to watch.

Almost certainly in response to the imminence of Tropical Storm (potentially Hurricane) Katrina bringing cooling rains to the southern half of its Florida market area, Florida Gas Transmission ended Thursday an Overage Alert Day notice that had been initiated Aug. 10 and had tolerances for negative daily imbalances varying between 5% and 25% during its two-week run.

Strong support from a day-earlier screen spike and the continued approach of Tropical Storm Emily to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production area had only limited success in sustaining firmer prices in the East Wednesday. But a record-setting heat wave occupying much of the West was more successful in generating the day’s biggest price increases in that region.

Tropical Storm Arlene barely pinched oil and natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) earlier this month, according to the Minerals Management Service (MMS). In its final report on the first storm of the season last week, MMS reported that the cumulative shut-in gas production from June 10 through midday last Tuesday was 3.428 Bcf, which is equivalent to 0.087% of the yearly production of about 3.94 Tcf.

While Tropical Storm Arlene failed to develop into a significant storm such as Hurricane Ivan in 2004, a review of hurricane trends show that there is more than a one in three chance of large hurricane catastrophe-losses in the United States in the current season, according to EQECAT Inc., an extreme risk modeling firm.

In its final report on Tropical Storm Arlene, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) Tuesday said there remained one platform that was still evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), along with 59 MMcf/d of shut-in natural gas and 5,696 bbl/d of crude oil. Only four producers reported losses to the MMS.

Tropical Storm Arlene did little more than lightly pinch oil and natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) over the weekend, and most of the shut-in production has been restored, with minimal damage to platforms and rigs, according to offshore operators.

While some Gulf of Mexico producers were evacuating rigs and shutting in oil and natural gas production in preparation for Tropical Storm Arlene, natural gas futures traders seemed unshaken Friday as July natural gas settled at $6.932, down 11.3 cents on the day, but 5.2 cents up for the week.