Tone

Physical natural gas values fell at a majority of points on Monday as early weakness in the futures added a soft tone to the market and the market forces of minimal supportive weather and ample if not burdensome storage prevailed.

Mixed cash market action set the tone for the day Monday with points declining in the gulf Coast and Midcontinent regions while Northeast, Rockies and West Coast points managed moderate gains. The expiring March futures finished on a soft note as the technical environment continued to deteriorate. At the close March had settled at $2.446, down 10.4 cents and April shed 9.2 cents to $2.603. April crude oil dropped $1.21 to $108.56/bbl.

July natural gas futures gained as traders noted a firm tone to the market as well as a supportive weather outlook. Negative news on the economy was shrugged off, and at the close July had gained 14.8 cents to $4.666 and August had risen 14.3 cents to $4.700. July crude oil surged $2.11 to $102.70/bbl.

Setting a different tone than the prior front-month contract, May natural gas futures in their first regular session action on Tuesday probed higher price levels, recording a high of $3.990 before closing the day at $3.973, up 5.7 cents from Monday’s finish.

Setting a different tone than the prior front-month contract, May natural gas futures in their first regular session action on Tuesday probed higher price levels, recording a high of $3.990 before closing the day at $3.973, up 5.7 cents from Monday’s finish.

May natural gas futures were unable to sustain Friday’s 13-cent advance and stumbled badly as weaker crude oil and equity markets set a negative tone to the day’s trading. Analysts see no reconciliation between plump production and recession-diminished demand for another two quarters and suggest things could get really grim if next winter is mild.

Cash prices were taking on a considerably more bearish tone Tuesday, with most points experiencing sizeable declines. The demand destruction from Hurricane Ike, along with generally mild to cool weather outside the interior West, was proving to have more influence on the market than the Gulf of Mexico shut-ins, which still totaled more than 6 Bcf/d.

With an indignant, fighting tone questioning the veracity of their accusers’ evidence, major energy companies named as alleged market manipulators in the “mountains of evidence” California officials submitted to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission earlier this month filed their responses Thursday and pulled no punches. One called the California submittal “shoddy work,” and another promised to go to the U.S. Supreme Court to defend its reputation. All expressed feelings of being unfairly accused.

Plunges in New England citygates and mild firmness in the Rockies constituted the extremes in an overall market Tuesday that saw most points range from flat to down about 20 cents. A solid majority of the declines were small at less than a dime.