Tell

It’s too soon to tell whether Dynegy Corp.’s proposed merger with Enron Corp. will be approved by federal regulators, but the most critical problem may not be how big the two companies’ trading power will be, but how much Enron’s shrinks over the next few months, noted analysts on Thursday. If Enron regains and retains the number one position it held just weeks ago, federal approval may be questionable; if Enron’s market share is diluted, the merger may stand a better chance of succeeding.

Trendlines, like exit polls for statisticians, can tell marketwatchers a lot about the direction in which things might beheading. And while some statisticians in political arena might bewell-advised to take a closer look at their rules and procedures oflate, technicians in the natural gas arena have had a pretty easytime forecasting market moves. Since smashing into long-termtrendline support on Oct. 31, the market has resumed its uptrendand erupted a dollar higher, leaving even the mostdyed-in-the-wool bear traders second guessing their stripes.December futures finished strongly again Wednesday, up 25.7 centsat $5.338.

The numbers, it seems, don’t tell the entire story. Even thoughoil and gas industry upstream revenues, profits and cash flow areshowing record profits for 1999 compared with the previous year’scollapse, exploration and development spending dropped and provedreserves spending rose significantly, according to ArthurAndersen’s 21st annual Global E&P Trends survey.

The numbers, it seems, don’t tell the entire story. Even thoughoil and gas industry upstream revenues, profits and cash flow areshowing record profits for 1999 compared with the previous year’scollapse, exploration and development spending dropped and provedreserves spending rose significantly, according to ArthurAndersen’s 21st annual Global E&P Trends survey.

One look at Nymex natural gas futures prices will tell yousupply is a little scarcer than consumers probably would like, andfirst quarter financial reports are confirming that production isdown from last year. Producer earnings soared during the firstquarter as a result of higher oil and gas prices, and lowerdomestic gas production should take some of the blame for the bullmarket.

Although you couldn’t tell from rapidly depleting gas storagelevels or lofty gas prices, this winter turned out to be thewarmest on record for the United States, according to a report bythe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And it was thethird winter in a row in which record warmth cooked the UnitedStates.

Although you couldn’t tell from rapidly depleting gas storagelevels or lofty gas prices, this winter turned out to be thewarmest on record for the United States, according to a report bythe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And it was thethird winter in a row in which record warmth cooked the UnitedStates.

The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) in a completeabout-face last week withdrew the civil fraud charges against aformer Canadian Embassy aide less than a month after bringing them.The reason given for the action was to encourage negotiationsbetween the two sides, but some took it as a sign that the chargesmay have been weak.

Crews were already starting to leave platforms Thursday in theMobile Bay area, but it was hard to tell from cash priceperformances, which ranged from flat to down about a nickel.Perhaps that was because virtually no shut-ins are occurring yet, aTexas trader suggested.