Technicals

With little in the way of fresh fundamental news and plenty of uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s storage report, natural gas futures traders played it close to their vests Tuesday. The July contract had a hard time mustering either a rally or a decline as it managed only an 11-cent trading range. It closed at $5.712, up 0.6 cents for the session. At just 62,296 contracts, estimated volume was light for the second day in a row.

You’ve got to like the “I will not be pushed” mentality exhibited by the market Wednesday. Less than 24 hours after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that the nation has a long-term gas supply problem, natural gas futures turned lower as traders liquidated longs in hopes of taking advantage of short-term bearish rewards.

While natural gas futures trading decisions based on rig counts and data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on gas production and consumption may be easy to explain to a corporate chief risk officer, technical indicators, such as moving averages and stochastics, do a far better job of not only signaling when a price trend is about to turn, but also the size of an impending rally or retreat, said Tom Saal of Miami-based Commercial Brokerage Corp.

Adding to strength experienced in the overnight access trading session, natural gas futures galloped higher Monday as short-covering made a indelible imprint on a market otherwise devoid of much trading liquidity. After gapping higher at the opening bell, the prompt June contract received a boost by supportive technical features as well as reports of nuclear unit problems. It closed at $5.689, up 43.4 cents for the session.

While natural gas futures trading decisions based on rig counts and data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on gas production and consumption may be easy to explain to a corporate chief risk officer, technical indicators, such as moving averages and stochastics, do a far better job of not only signaling when a price trend is about to turn, but also the size of impending rally or retreat, said Tom Saal of Miami-based Commercial Brokerage Corp.

After initially ducking lower to equal Monday’s $5.16 low, the June natural gas futures contract struggled higher in featureless trading on its first session as prompt contract Tuesday. It closed at $5.236, up 4.6 cents for the session and 7.6 cents off its early low. Estimated volume was light, with 69,391 contracts changing hands.

Although officially spring on the calendar, it was still winter Monday if you live in the upper Midwest, the Northeast, or trade natural gas futures.

Increasingly muddled technicals and fundamentals played to a stalemate Wednesday as natural gas futures traders failed to propel prices very far from the $5.00 mark. At the closing bell, the front months made small advances while the winter 2003/04 strip ebbed slightly. April finished at $5.097, up 2 cents for the session on its penultimate trading day. May, which will take over as prompt month when April goes off the board Thursday, notched a 3-cent gain to close at $5.147.

In what could be the most bullish 2-cent decline in recent memory, natural gas futures rebounded from early lows Wednesday as buyers continued to bet heavily on storage and weather holding the market up. After failing to extend down to a key downside objective at $6.70, the April contract rallied in the afternoon in light, pre-storage report short-covering. It closed at $7.021, down 2 cents on the day, but more than 27 cents above its morning low of $6.75.