Sustained

The cash market again baffled many Thursday with its ability to keep rising on either side of a low-demand holiday, especially with little help from weather fundamentals (except in the West) or the screen. At least a couple of traders think reality will set in today with falling prices.

Amid persistent questions about supplies and sustained high prices, the Canadian natural gas community heard a reassuring word — it is not an issue in the federal election, and its defenders are armed with answers if critics step forward before the Nov. 27 vote. The good word — and the defense arsenal — came from the National Energy Board, in a 61-page market assessment released as the Canadian campaign entered its second week at the same time as falling thermometers signaled the onset of heating season.

Amid persistent questions about supplies and sustained highprices, the Canadian natural gas community heard a reassuring word— it is not an issue in the federal election, and its defendersare armed with answers if critics step forward before the Nov. 27vote. The good word — and the defense arsenal — came from theNational Energy Board, in a 61-page market assessment released asthe Canadian campaign entered its second week at the same time asfalling thermometers signaled the onset of heating season.

Acknowledging that a combination of unexpected generator outagesand sustained hot weather could create the threat of power outagesthis summer, the California Independent System Operator (Cal-ISO)launched a new alert system for gaining enough voluntaryconservation by businesses and mass consumers to ride out thepeak-demand periods. Calling it “Power Watch 2000,” Cal-ISOPresident/CEO Terry Winter said he anticipates that both short- andlong-term the state can use market-based programs to addresspotential shortfalls.

Acknowledging that a combination of unexpected generator outagesand sustained hot weather could create the threat of power outagesthis summer, the California Independent System Operator (Cal-ISO)launched a new alert system for gaining enough voluntaryconservation by businesses and mass consumers to ride out thepeak-demand periods. Calling it “Power Watch 2000,” Cal-ISOPresident/CEO Terry Winter said he anticipates that both short- andlong-term the state can use market-based programs to addresspotential shortfalls.

The gains made earlier this week were not sustained yesterday asmost points on GPI’s Daily survey lost between a couple cents and adime. Spot points in the Midcontinent, California and the Rockieswere the exception, however, as most registered flat to decreasesof just a penny or two; some even managed small increases.

Adding to losses sustained in the Monday evening Access tradingsession, gas futures continued lower yesterday in sympathy withfree falling physical prices and in expectation of a bearishstorage report today. After gapping a hefty 7 cents lower to openat $2.44 the spot month October sifted lower throughout the sessionto close down 9.2 cents at $2.427. Heavy estimated volume of 89,223served to authenticate the move lower.

Anadarko CEO Robert J. Allison Jr. is not alone in predicting asustained oil market recovery now that OPEC has decided it can livewith a little less supply on the market. But unlike most of thesoothsayers attending the Howard Weil Energy Conference in NewOrleans, Allison sees a major turnaround ahead and much greatervolatility than has been present in market cycles of the past.

Gas markets should see sustained growth from now until 2015,according to a study just completed by the Canadian Energy ResearchInstitute (CERI). Demand is projected to grow in all markets withthe highest growth rates coming from use of gas for powergeneration.