Surprised

In a move that surprised many on Capitol Hill, Senate Republican and Democratic leaders reached a consent deal late Thursday to attach the 10-year, $13 billion energy tax package to a corporate tax cut measure before leaving for their spring recess.

More than one trader was surprised to see cash prices generally holding firm Thursday, defying the greater than usual industrial load slump associated with a three-day holiday weekend. Forecasts of a cold front bringing winter-like chills again to the central U.S. and the strength of energy futures Wednesday and Thursday were cited as the chief reasons in the continued rally at most non-western points.

Confronted with growing weakness in weather fundamentals, more than one trader was surprised to see a majority of points stay close to flat Wednesday. Few of them varied from unchanged by more than about a nickel. Only Northeast citygates significantly extended Tuesday’s softness by dropping 8-15 cents.

Analysts with Raymond James aren’t one bit surprised that fourth quarter natural gas production in North America appears to show another decline — it’s deja vu all over again.

Analysts with Raymond James aren’t one bit surprised that fourth quarter natural gas production in North America appears to show another decline — it’s deja vu all over again.

Prices surprised more than a few traders Friday by staging a moderate rally in the face of weakening weather fundamentals and the industrial demand slump that accompanies a weekend period. A few scattered points were essentially flat, while increases ranged from as little as 2-3 cents to about a dime.

San Diego-based Sempra Energy indicated Monday it was not surprised by a downgrade from Moody’s Investors Service for it and one of its two major utilities, San Diego Gas and Electric Co. Sempra pointed out that Moody’s maintained the “stable” outlook and an investment-grade level rating, and the company attributed the action to the general energy sector’s troubles, rather than weaknesses in its businesses or strategies.

Some traders may have been surprised to see prices leveling off or climbing a few cents higher at most non-western points Thursday. But fundamental weather support was rising, as colder weather either had entered or was due in the Northeast, Gulf Coast production area and Pacific Northwest. Also, the screen was marginally higher during the morning, before turning negative later.

Some traders were surprised by the market’s inability to add to Wednesday’s losses Thursday after breaking below key support at $2.50 on another bearish storage report. According to the AGA, 19 Bcf was withdrawn from the Consuming Region West and 3 Bcf was injected in the Producing Region, resulting in a net 16 Bcf withdrawal for the nation for the week ending Nov. 30 (There was no change in the Consuming Region East). The net withdrawal was well within the range of expectations, which were centered on a draw-down of 10-20 Bcf. However the net takeaway was undeniably bearish as it fell short of comparisons with last year (73 Bcf withdrawal) and the five-year average (55 Bcf withdrawal). Storage is now 30%, or 699 Bcf, above year-ago levels.