Spot

Summer power price spikes may have hardly triggered a blip onthe gas spot market last year, but that may not be the case in thenear future. With the expected tremendous growth in gas-fired powergeneration, gas prices are on track to be more closely linked withthe price of electricity than the price of oil, according toCoastal Corp. CEO David A. Arledge.

After spiraling down in the last 30 minutes of last Thursday’sabbreviated trading session, the spot January contract gapped lowerand traded in a tight 6-cent trading range Monday as traderscontinued to test the downside of the market. The nearby cashmarket, which was trading 5-10 cents lower on many pipes, had anundeniable affect when the futures market opened at 10 AM EST,traders said. Estimated volume was robust, with 86,466 contractschanging hands.

The severe winter cold snap last week triggered unprecedentedprice spikes at spot points in the Pacific Northwest and NorthernCalifornia. PG&ampE Citygate prices hit $6.18/MMBtu on Monday andwere near $5 on Tuesday. Prices jumped to $11.05/MMBtu at Sumas onthe previous Friday for weekend flow, and on Monday and Tuesdaystayed north of $6.

September debuted as the spot Nymex contract Thursday in afairly uneventful fashion, by first trading briefly higher, beforelight selling pushed the market down to settle at $1.906, a 2.7cent loss for the day. Traders continue to point to the currentdowntrend that “exerts its influence on this market at every turn,”as a reason for the move lower. “[Thursday] there was not muchimpetus to move higher or lower, but the mentality in this marketcontinues to be buy little dips and sell the rest of the time,” atrader offered.

$2.40 gas proved to be too much for July on Wednesday, as thespot futures contract fell 5.5 cents to settle the day at $2.336.July opened at $2.41, but that turned out to be its high trade forthe day as sellers were quick to liquidate positions and takeprofits ahead of the contract’s expiration this Friday.

The start of hourly electricity pricing in California isexpected to be delayed because the state chartered wholesaleelectricity spot market is encountering logistical and technicalproblems. The Board of Directors for the state Power Exchange (PX)meets today to determine how far into July to postpone the openingof the new market. A formal announcement on a new target date isexpected to be made following the board meeting.

It was pretty much a nothing day at the New York MercantileExchange on Friday, as the spot June contract could only move 2.2cents lower to settle the day at $2.178. Trading was limited to atight 4 cent range.

Amid a day one broker called “perhaps the most boring of any Iremember,” the spot June NYMEX contract nudged 0.4 cents lower tosettle at $2.200. The broker actually said the day was interestingin that a large amount of anticipated activity never materialized.”Every floor trader we spoke to expected when June broke below$2.18, tons of sell stops would kick in between $2.15-17. But therewasn’t diddly squat for stops. In fact, just the opposite happenedin that there was pretty good scaled-down buying once June hit$2.15,” he said.

The AGA storage report proved to be an anchor on natural gasfutures prices yet again on Wednesday, as the spot June contractfell 5.2 cents to settle at $2.204. The latest report came in at100 Bcf worth of injections, which increases the surplus versuslast year by 30 Bcf to 403 Bcf. Total estimated volume came in at59,231.