Softness

Weekend prices drifted lower by varying degrees Friday, rangingfrom barely a penny down on a couple of Gulf Coast pipes todouble-digit decreases throughout much of the West. A flat screenprovided no cash guidance, traders said, so it was primarily milderweather plus the typical drop in weekend load that promptedmoderate declines of about a nickel or less at most eastern points.

Prices failed to fake out anyone Wednesday. With Tuesday’s latesoftness on the Nymex screen carrying over into Wednesday and thesubsidence of “the big bakeoff” in the Northeast, as one producercalled it, it didn’t take a crystal ball to make a bear marketcall. The larger declines on either side of a dime tended tocluster in the Gulf Coast, Appalachian, Northeast, Midcontinent andMidwest markets, while western drops generally were around a nickelor less. Unlike the late screen-related fallbacks reported Tuesday,traders said a number of points saw slight upticks in late dealsWednesday.

Except for small upticks in San Juan Basin and related pointspartially due to an unexpected compressor station outage (seeTransportation Notes), the cash market again was mildly softerMonday. Much like last week, a screen decline of about a nickelprovided about the only influence meaningful to cash traders. Evensome cool weather returning to the Midwest failed to keep Chicagoand Michigan citygates from dropping 2-3 cents, while Midcontinentfield numbers were mostly flat.

A storage report considered bearish by most traders set thestage for softness in the cash market Thursday, then a plungingfutures screen virtually guaranteed cash declines. Sure enough,nearly every point fell between 5 and 8 cents. “We’re just tradingdown with the screen,” said a Western marketer.

For ninth time in the last 10 trading sessions, natural gasfutures were lower last Friday as sellers pressured theprompt-April contract to its life-of-contract low. No freshfundamental news was seen to lift the market, and as a result itfollowed the long-standing trend 3.1 cents lower to $1.628.

The cash market was mostly flat to a few cents softer Friday,surprising more than one source who had expected bigger declinesbased on the usual slump in weekend demand. Apparently a new winterstorm revving up in the Midwest had traders nervous about going tooshort. Also, some well freeze-offs were reported affecting allpipes in Oklahoma to small degrees. A Tulsa marketer said mostpeople were going home early after icy roads caused the schools toclose.

The week’s trading wound to a close Friday with generally lesssoftness than had been expected. In relatively quiet activity, mostpoints were down a few cents with only occasional lapses of morethan a dime. A Midcontinent source who said Thursday he wouldn’t besurprised to see mid $1.30s pricing for the weekend, found insteadmost regional numbers averaging in the $1.50s Friday.

Late-November price softness showed little sign of abating inpost-weekend activity Monday, and except for residents of theNorthwest and Upper Plains enduring somewhat nasty weather, thereason was apparent to anybody who went outdoors. Temperaturesapproaching the Thanksgiving holiday are unseasonably mild for thegreat majority of the U.S., and the lack of load combined with theearly stages of storage withdrawal season were depressing both cashand futures numbers. Quotes were mostly flat for the SouthernCalifornia border and TCO; otherwise price declines tended to rangefrom about a nickel to more than a dime.

It looks like bears are roaming the market woods for the holidayseason, said a producer noting new softness in both futures andcash prices Friday. No nay-sayers to her assessment could be foundas sources agreed that weather and storage fundamentals continue tolook weak for the foreseeable future, barring a surprise blizzardor two. A marketer said he “wouldn’t be surprised if we end up withDecember indexes looking a lot like November’s.”