Softer

With signs that the touch of winter experienced earlier thisweek in the Northeast was already starting to subside, nearly allof the cash market ranged from flat to about a dime lowerWednesday. Most production area and Midwest citygate points fell bya nickel or less. The declines of a dime or more tended to clusterin the Northeast.

It was a mostly softer swing market Monday, but with very littleconsistency in price movement. New quotes ranged from down around20 cents at Northeast citygates, which tended to see last week’sbiggest increases, to 2-5 cents higher in California, where alow-inventory OFO by PG&E helped boost demand. Other points inbetween were flat to down more than a nickel, with most of thedrops being in the vicinity of a nickel.

The cash market turned in a decidedly mixed performance Monday.In general, quotes at many western points were up a nickel or so,while the East ranged from essentially flat to down as much as adime. A marketer had a simple explanation: “The West had a littlemore weather (cooling load) than the East did.” A screen drop of 2cents only had the barest negative influence on cash, sources said.

What had seemed like a mildly softer early aftermarket in swingdeals done Tuesday got much weaker Wednesday. Influenced greatly bya falling screen but also by a continuing lack of positivefundamentals, nearly all points were down a dime or more. NorthernCalifornia was a rare bastion of relative market strength in theU.S. Malin and the PG&E citygate dropped only about a nickel asPG&E repeated last week’s unusual action of issuing alow-inventory OFO on a summer weekday.

Slowly but surely the faux summer that much of the eastern U.S.has experienced recently is turning into “real summer,” a marketernoted. But even that and a moderate gain by the August Henry Hubfutures contract were not enough to avert softening at most cashtrading points Thursday. Eastern declines tended to be minuscule,with a few points staying flat and few others falling by more than1-2 cents. But an easing of Southwest supply constraints andgenerally cooler weather in the West caused larger price drops inthe West, topped by a loss of several cents in the San Juan Basin.

Eastern markets emerged from the weekend without seeing anyrebound from Friday’s slump. Prices continued to decline by mostlysmall amounts, with various points ranging from flat to just over anickel lower. A small futures drop contributed to the cashbearishness, traders said, but more than anything else it was arelative dearth of air conditioning load that sent prices down.

Cash quotes were mildly softer Monday, with price movementranging from none (flat) to down about a nickel. A July futuresdrop of just over 7 cents was the obvious explanation for cashweakness to many sources. A Houston-based aggregator asserted that”lack of weather” in both the Gulf Coast production area andNortheast market area exacerbated the screen’s negative influence.Forecasts continue to call for hotter temperatures later this week,he said, “but it’s not happening yet.” Even with Monday being theofficial start date for summer, recent high thermometer readings inthe South are only rarely getting above the 80s, he said.

After Monday’s almost universal double-digit increases, cashprices were on auto-pilot Tuesday, as they trended down from theprevious day’s results. Many traders said Monday’s run-up would bethis week’s high, pointing to moderating weather and the thecompletion of pipeline maintenance projects.

It was a tale of two markets Friday at the New York MercantileExchange. Softer cash market prices helped push futures priceslower early in the trading session. Those losses, however, werequickly erased in the afternoon as traders weighed the impact offorecasts calling for warming temperatures this week. The Julycontract finished at $2.437, 4 cents higher for the day and 7.9cents for the week.