Softens

With the official start of spring only three days away, lack of heating demand softens market.

As presaged by reports of falling numbers in late deals Wednesday, prices fell between about a nickel and 30 cents at most points Thursday with seriously cold weather remaining largely confined to the Midwest, Northeast and some parts of the Rockies. Northeast citygates, where a return to the deep freeze was impending following Thursday’s brief respite from frigid conditions, again ran contrary to overall trends with gains on either side of a dollar.

As NGI sources had suspected the day before, the cash market couldn’t keep rising indefinitely without visible means of support. Sure enough, eastern prices finally reacted Thursday to the one-two punch of weakening futures and only a modicum of weather-related demand by registering declines that were mostly in the vicinity of a dime but ranged from about a nickel to a little more than 20 cents.

Buoyed mostly by storage demand, modest firmness continued to dominate eastern markets Tuesday, although a few points were flat and only Transco Zone 6 non-New York managed a gain of more than about a dime. Softness reigned in most of the West, which not coincidentally is the only region that was not drawing down storage in the last two Energy Information Administration reports.

The market was back at it Friday, acting contrary to logical thinking in some traders’ minds. Eastern points were mostly flat overall, but ranging from mildly softer to more than a nickel higher at a few Northeast citygates despite weather in most areas that didn’t appear to justify relative firmness. Meanwhile, an honest to goodness winter storm was moving eastward into the Rockies, yet numbers were down by a nickel or more at most western points.

Weekend prices bowed under the weight of the umpteenth huge weekly storage injection report and generally mild weather in the key Midwest and Northeast market areas. Despite reports of air conditioning load starting to pick up to near-normal summer levels in the South and Midcontinent, quotes declined between a nickel and 20 cents at most points, with much bigger plunges seen in California.

While the East looked around and, seeing nearly all appreciable weather load fading fast, decided to sit tight or retreat a bit price-wise Wednesday, most western points were soaring in a frenzy of buying. California and Rockies pipes saw spikes that often hit triple digits. Only flatness in the Pacific Northwest and at a couple of Permian Basin points, along with a downturn for intra-Alberta numbers, belied the overall western strength.

Prices emerged from the weekend flat to slightly higher or lowerMonday at nearly all points outside the declining California andRockies/San Juan markets. There probably would have been moreeastern softness, sources said, if weather in the Northeast andMidwest hadn’t exhibited more of a tendency to retreat back intowinter, rather than press forward into spring. Even the South wasseeing more chill than normal for this time of year.

Most of the overall swing market was mildly higher Tuesday, withwestern-especially Rockies-points tending to exhibit the most pricestrength with gains of up to a dime. A few PG&E citygate quotessurpassed $3, marking the first time that area has been hit (inU.S. dollars) since Transco Zone 6-NYC topped out at $3.02 forSept. 15 flows.