Slight

ConocoPhillips expects its first quarter oil and natural gas production to be “slightly less” sequentially over the fourth quarter of 2003, the company said Monday.

Slight moderating trends in winter weather, weak futures and lessened industrial load over a weekend combined to send prices lower at nearly all points Friday.

Except for a few essentially flat points in Appalachia and the Gulf Coast, the two-day bullish streak in the general cash market ended Thursday. Several Northeast citygates measured declines in triple-digit amounts, while elsewhere losses tended to range from about a nickel to nearly 90 cents. Traders cited approaching breaks, however small, from the icy conditions that have plagued markets across the northern U.S. and Canada — and even down into the Southeast — over the past few days as chiefly responsible for the price reversals.

The door is open to future equity partners, a possible transportation role and ultimately a slight delay in the start-up of San Diego-based Sempra Energy’s aggressive plans for siting two liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminals in the West and Gulf coasts by 2007, according to Sempra’s CEO Stephen Baum, responding to questions from financial analysts in a earnings conference call Thursday.

With a cold front gradually extending its reach into the Midcontinent and forecasts of frigid weather later this week in the key market areas of the Midwest and Northeast, prices were mixed on either side of flat Tuesday, but gains tended to outweigh the losses.

December natural gas futures opened lower Tuesday, immediately probing the downside, but rebounded after failing to test the overnight Access low at $4.585. It bounced up to a high of $4.790 at 11 a.m. EST before relaxing and then trading sideways the rest of the day. The near-month contract managed a 2.2-cent daily gain, ending the session at $4.727. The January contract slipped 0.6 cents to $4.977, February added 0.4 cents to close at $4.982, and March slid 0.1 cents to $4.887.

Consultants at Freedman Billings Ramsey (FBR) in Northern Virginia see only a slight increase in drilling and gas production as a result of the proposal released last week by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) to reduce royalties on deep shelf Gulf of Mexico gas production (see Daily GPI, March 27).

Consultants at Freedman Billings Ramsey (FBR) in Northern Virginia see only a slight increase in drilling and gas production as a result of the proposal released last week by the Mineral Management Service (MMS) to reduce royalties on deep shelf Gulf of Mexico gas production (see Daily GPI, March 27).

The 11 majors and independents that produce about 14% of the natural gas for the Lower 48 are reporting a 1.7% sequential decline over the first quarter and a 5.8% decline over a year ago, according to research by Lehman Brothers’ analyst Thomas R. Driscoll. The analyst, who surveys a total of 45 producers that overall account for 70% of U.S. production, has revised a previous forecast of flat production for the quarter, and now predicts either a small increase or decrease, in the range of +0.4% to 0.4%, from the first quarter of this year.