Seemed

Some sources seemed to think the cash market was manufacturingprice increases out of nothing Thursday. Others, however, said mildsupport from the futures trading pit combined with a cold frontmoving towards the East Coast to generate price firmness rangingfrom flat to up about a nickel. For a change there was nogeographic pattern in the market as the price gains tended to bescattered across all regions.

Feeding off strength from Wednesday’s minor advance, the futuresmarket seemed to pick up momentum yesterday. A stronger open gainedapproval from eager bulls, who bid the contract steadily upwardThursday morning. Then after an early afternoon sell-off wasthwarted, prices again pressed higher, but this time buying camefrom all market segments as locals, trade, and paper players joinedthe rally. The April contract finished up 7.6 cents at $1.835.

The strong corrective rebound of the April contract seemed indanger of coming to an end yesterday morning when the contract setnew lows for the week at $1.835, but April held and quickly resumedits upward path in afternoon trade to post a new high at $1.930 andclose the day at $1.928/MMBtu.

Bombing Iraq seemed as reasonable an explanation as any for whymost cash markets were rising in the neighborhood of a dimeWednesday. Weather was getting a little colder but still relativelymild for this time of year, so it’s not like there’s any big surgein gas demand, a marketer said. The AGA storage report of 49 Bcf inwithdrawals last week, which came too late to affect Wednesday’strading, was approximately in the middle of most expectations andthus neither bearish nor bullish.

It seemed that virtually everyone in the gas trading communitywas glad to bid a not-so-fond farewell to a September fraught withhurricane hassles and get on with an October in which theaftermarket is starting out very strongly. Swing deals being doneWednesday for today’s flow generally ranged from 10 to 20 centsabove bidweek averages. Late quotes for October baseload also wererebounding after most points had sunk steadily to the bottom end oftheir ranges.

Traders finally got a chance to conduct business Monday for whatseemed like the first day in September with no tropical stormsimmediately threatening, disrupting or starting to move on afterhaving disrupted Gulf of Mexico production. “It was nice to have alittle window with nothing [storm-related] imminent,” one soucesaid. Cash prices reacted to what has been generally bearishfundamentals all along with declines of between a nickel and eitherside of a dime.

It seemed reasonable Thursday to expect that prices would besoftening Friday. Sources ticked off good reasons for thinking so:a low-demand holiday weekend; forecasts of moderating Western heat;and the end of storm-related outages in the Gulf Coast.

The tiny futures increase Monday seemed insignificant but mighthave been a harbinger of a much stronger rise Tuesday that carriedcash up with it. As has often been the case in the past, sourcesdragged out the old refrain of “following the screen” to explain…why cash was rising. Most points west of Waha were flat to only acouple of cents higher, and Rockies prices even fell a bit, butother markets tended to see upticks of 4-9 cents. Activity wasdecidedly more intense following what many people had considered a”boring market” Monday.

For a change, fundamentals actually seemed to be behind pricemovements at the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday. The spotApril contract gained 4.0 cents to $2.169 yesterday, as a blast ofwinter temperatures propelled cash market prices up 5-10 centsacross much of the country.