Screen

Following the lead of an essentially flat screen during most ofthe cash trading period, the spot market leveled off Wednesday,with small upticks outweighing the few small declines. An Arcticcold front was moving eastward toward the Midwest and eventually tothe Northeast, making citygates tend to rise a bit more thanproduction-area points.

Despite double-digit physical market increases and an earlyretest of the $2.80 level, natural gas futures tanked yesterday astraders weighed the impact of warm weather forecasts for the firstpart of October. After holding in the high $2.70s for most of themorning Monday, the November contract was hit with a round ofselling in the afternoon that pushed the price 16.8 cents lower toclose at $2.625.

Gas buyers certainly had no complaints about “storm hype”keeping prices artificially high Tuesday. Even with one of the mostdangerous hurricanes of the century pounding the Bahamas andbearing down on the southeastern U.S., its relative lack of threatto Gulf of Mexico production did nothing to avert cash price dropsof a dime or more-sometimes much more-in nearly every market. Onlythe Northern California points (Malin and PG&E citygate)managed to keep their declines in single digits, and even they fellalmost a dime.

October futures managed to achieve a moderately strong recoveryFriday but apparently there was too much negative baggage left overfrom Thursday’s quarter-plus plunge to support cash. Physical gasprices continued their downhill slide, buffeted by the combinationof weak holiday weekend demand and mild weather virtuallyeverywhere. “Cash just didn’t stand a chance today,” a marketersaid.

The recent running of the bulls in Pamplona, Spain, seems prettytame compared to the stampede developing in the gas market. It wasa more hectic Nymex closing day than usual Wednesday as a mildincrease in the last day of trading August futures was accompaniedby what one source called a “pitiful” little AGA storage injectionreport, Michigan electric utilities appealing a day in advance forenergy conservation, a skyrocketing Access session and higher Julyswing numbers. All in all, it added up to an extremely strongmarket that “there doesn’t seem to be any way of stopping,” a Texasmarketer said.

Cash prices ignored a falling screen and the usual lower gasdemand of a weekend, instead using growing heat in the Northeastand Midwest to fashion an overall flat market Friday. The East hadmore of the mild firmness while small declines tended to clustermore in the West. That was best illustrated by the day’s extremes:increases of more than a nickel for citygates in the hot and humidNortheast, as opposed to a drop of a nickel at the PG&Ecitygate, where the utility had a high-inventory OFO in effect (seeTransportation Notes).

Cash was basically “chasing” the screen Thursday, a marketersaid. Although overall numbers were down by a nickel or more atnearly all points, prices were rebounding in late activity aftertraders saw the Henry Hub futures contract for May overcome anearly dip and head back up.

The mini-rallies reported at several points in Wednesday’s latecash trading apparently carried over into Thursday, resulting in aflat to slightly higher March swing market. A strong showing byHenry Hub futures on Nymex helped give cash a boost, sources said.In addition, there was enough chillier weather in the midwesternand northeastern market areas to have an impact on heating load.

Lacking any influence from weather or a flat screen, cash pricesranged from flat to down about a nickel Wednesday. Nearly alldeclines were by smaller amounts than the increases that hadpreceded them Tuesday. In one marketer’s view, “Apparently priceswent back down to compensate for Tuesday’s unsupported rise.There’s no weather and no [pipeline capacity] restrictions.”