Reversal

A sharp reversal in the near-term weather forecast prompted heavy buying of natural gas futures Monday. Short-term traders suggested the market still had room to advance further, but also saw the day’s advance as a prime selling opportunity.

In an abrupt reversal, Northern Natural Gas ended a System Overrun Limitation (indicating heavy heating load) in all market-area zones Friday and said a System Underrun Limitation would take effect in all zones Sunday “due to the large warm-up expected over the weekend.” A bulletin board posting projected that Northern’s system-weighted average temperature would go from minus 4 Friday and plus 2 Saturday to 19 Sunday and 24 Monday.

Lower domestic natural gas production and a sharp reversal in commodity prices sent Chevron Corp.’s U.S. upstream earnings down 99% from a year ago, the biggest domestic decline in more than 25 years, the major reported Friday.

Lower domestic natural gas production and a sharp reversal in commodity prices sent Chevron Corp.’s U.S. upstream earnings down 99% from a year ago, the biggest domestic decline in more than 25 years, the major reported Friday.

Monday’s price movement saw a reversal of geographic orientation from the previous Friday. On Monday it was the East that was mostly softer, while most western points rallied from Friday’s overall declines. Freezing temperatures were still in the forecast for Tuesday from the Northeast through the Midcontinent/Midwest and Great Plains into the Rockies, but relatively moderate weather is in play across the southern tier of states.

Friday’s market was almost a complete reversal of the trend over the previous two days. This time prices were up in most of the East, while the Midcontinent and most of the West recorded large losses. Growing heating load in the Northeast and the previous day’s futures advance of 11.1 cents were chiefly responsible for the firmness. The softness could be attributed to declines in both heating and cooling demand and the drop of industrial load during a weekend.

Thursday’s July futures dive of 34.9 cents and forecasts for a weekend reversal of modest warming trends that had been occurring in the Midwest and Northeast resulted in double-digit drops at most points in trading for the first weekend of summer Friday. The decline of industrial load that accompanies a weekend market also played a part.

In a seemingly improbable reversal of fortune, cash prices staged a rally at all points Tuesday, with only MRT failing to realize a double-digit gain. Except in parts of the heating up West, weather fundamentals remained weak and prior-trading-day screen support was negative.

After trading lower than Thursday’s close for the entire morning Friday, August natural gas futures did a complete reversal in the afternoon. After recording a $5.880 low early in the day and a high of $6.150 late in the session, the prompt month ended up at $6.139, up 4.8 cents on the day, but 20.8 cents lower than the previous week’s close.