Retreating

After strong gains over the previous two days based on a widespread cold spell, prices began retreating at nearly all points Friday as forecasts indicated a return to more seasonal temperatures in most areas. The normal weekend drop of industrial load was another bearish influence, while the prior-day uptick of 2 cents by December futures had no appreciable impact on the physical market.

Although peak temperatures in the key northern market areas of the Northeast and Midwest are retreating into the low to mid 80s for the most part, it’s still way hot way down South (and through much of the Midcontinent and Lower Midwest into the desert Southwest and to some extent in the southern Rockies). Bottom line: the residual heat and prior-day futures support kept cash prices rising moderately at most points Thursday.

Natural gas futures bulls were repelled by resistance at $5.192 once again on Monday, resulting in the July contract retreating to close at $4.873, down 12.4 cents. The July contract has now failed that resistance test five out of the last six days, which oddly enough offers encouragement to both the market’s bulls and bears.

Resistance at $5 held up once again on Tuesday as November natural gas futures reached a high of $4.959 before retreating. The front-month contract reached a low of $4.513 before closing the day’s regular session at $4.588, down 29.2 cents from Monday’s finish.

Several retreating Northeast citygates failed to join rebounds from weekend weakness in the rest of the cash market Monday. In addition to prior-trading day support from Friday’s 16.4-cent rally by December futures and the return of industrial load from weekend hiatus, heating demand was picking up again in the Midwest and South after brief warming trends going into the weekend.

Natural gas futures bulls put in a new high for the up move on Tuesday but in the end were not able to capitalize on the momentum. June natural gas recorded a high of $11.364 just before noon EDT before retreating in the remainder of the regular session to finish the day at $11.150, down 2.8 cents from Monday.

After notching a brand new record prompt-month high at $14.75 in trading on Wednesday morning, November natural gas ended up retreating for the rest of the session, giving some traders the impression that a key reversal could be in the works. The prompt month ended up settling at $14.183, down 4.1 cents from Tuesday.

After testing the $6 resistance level on Monday, May natural gas futures raised the white flag early on Tuesday, retreating 22.1 cents to close at $5.788 on heavy volume, with 92,904 contracts changing hands.

After retreating from war-torn Sudan earlier in the week by selling its stake in Sudan’s major oil project to India’s national oil company for C$1.2 billion ($760 million), Canada’s No. 2 producer, Talisman Energy, said Friday it is buying the assets of Fairman Drilling Co., FDC Venture 15 LP, East Resources Inc. and ABARTA Oil & Gas Co. Inc. for US$58.6 million. The purchase is being made through Talisman subsidiary Fortuna Energy Inc.