Rebounds

The cash market didn’t have far to go in seeking support for a broad-based rally Monday. It found backing in several areas: new spikes throughout the energy futures complex (which likely will be reflected in physical gas even more strongly Tuesday); a past-due surge of cooling load ranging from Texas and the lower Midcontinent through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic; a major production outage in the Gulf of Mexico; and the usual restoration of industrial load that tends to get dampened over a weekend.

It was something of a hodgepodge cash market Monday, with most western points rebounding strongly from weekend weakness while markets in the East generally revolved around flat but also ranged from about a dime lower to nearly 15 cents higher at various points. Consistency was an elusive characteristic outside the West.

Major rebounds at El Paso-San Juan and the Southern California border were joined by only the Permian Basin/Waha market and a couple of Rockies points in realizing price increases Monday. Other points ranged from flat to as much as a dime lower, but most of the losses were modest at around a nickel or less.

As presaged by reports of falling numbers in late deals Wednesday, prices fell between about a nickel and 30 cents at most points Thursday with seriously cold weather remaining largely confined to the Midwest, Northeast and some parts of the Rockies. Northeast citygates, where a return to the deep freeze was impending following Thursday’s brief respite from frigid conditions, again ran contrary to overall trends with gains on either side of a dollar.

Weekend prices rose by 20-55 cents at nearly all points Friday as new forecasts indicated that extremely cold conditions in the Northeast and Midwest will extend beyond this week, and that January’s worst conditions of all may begin around mid-month. The exceptions to overall bullishness were triple-digit declines at a few points serving the New England market.

Classifying it as “once-in-30-years type coolness,” Weather 2000 said the eastern third of the United States has been devoid of summer heat and sun during the May-August 2003 period, with no real signs of change on the horizon. The New York City-based forecasting and consulting firm said East Coasters must travel west to America’s heartland to find any signs of summer 2003 warmth.

Classifying it as “once-in-30-years type coolness,” Weather 2000 said the eastern third of the United States has been devoid of summer heat and sun during the May-August 2003 period, with no real signs of change on the horizon. The New York City-based forecasting and consulting firm said East Coasters must travel west to America’s heartland to find any signs of summer 2003 warmth.

After gapping lower for the second session in a row and reaching a new two-week low, natural gas futures rebounded at the close Wednesday amid a wave of expiration-day short-covering. The June contract initially dipped into the $5.70s early Wednesday, but a short-covering rally ended up boosting the contract to a final settlement of $5.945, up 4.5 cents for the session and 74.5 cents above where June began its tenure as prompt contract a month ago. Comparatively, May 2003 closed 82.2 cents lower at $5.123.

Cash prices reversed direction again Thursday for the third time in as many days. Sources cited ongoing storage demand, the previous day’s screen rally and the growing impact of hot weather in the South as factors in across-the-board gains ranging from about a nickel to nearly 30 cents. Most increases tended to be between a dime and a quarter.