Perceived

Running counter to recent public and private sector analyses, mediocre results so far and complex geology have combined to cause an Alliance Bernstein (AB) analyst to question whether the Monterey Shale will live up to some of the hype surrounding its future prospects. Even with these reservations, high oil prices could push the play closer to its potential, the report conceded.

As Marcellus Shale development has been expanding across Pennsylvania, dairy production has been falling, but it’s unclear how the two trends are connected, according to a report from Pennsylvania State University.

August natural gas futures gained ground Tuesday on the day prior to expiration. Traders see little in the way to suggest that any fundamentals have changed, and perceived the day’s activity as movement within a broad and uninspired trading range. At the close August natural gas rose 6.3 cents to $4.675 and September added 6.3 cents as well to $4.646. September crude oil tumbled $1.48 to $77.50/bbl.

A marketer had perceived Monday that the growing abundance of major cooling load, especially in the central and southwestern U.S., would not be able to sustain that day’s rally at a majority of cash points because it was accompanied by a screen drop of just under a dime. He was proven correct as softness prevailed in most of the physical market Tuesday.

Despite the official start of the winter season on Dec. 21, temperatures for a majority of the United States have been anything but winter-like so far, easing the perceived pressure on the natural gas supply/demand balance. As a result, natural gas futures prices through Tuesday had fallen $4.758 from the January contract’s all-time high of $15.780 on Dec. 13, which might just help consumers a little with their winter utility bills down the road.

In light of the lingering safety concerns, real or perceived, over LNG and the cancellation of four proposed LNG terminals due to local opposition, Lehman Brothers is forecasting that only three new liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals, out of a total of about 40 proposed terminals, will be built in North America by 2010 for a total of seven operating terminals.

Most of the market “seemed to take a breather” Friday, as oneproducer perceived it, going quietly into the weekend flat tomildly higher. The points experiencing significant declines ofabout a nickel or greater were scattered They included San JuanBasin, Stanfield and Iroquois Zone 2 and were topped by a drop of alittle more than a dime at Malin.