Often

Expectations often differ from what actually comes to fruitionin the volatile arena of natural gas futures, and yesterday thatpoint was driven home when a bullish combination of slow-to-resumesupply outages met with a smaller-than-expected storage refill.Traders chased the market higher most of the day, and advances inthe evening computer trading Access session nearly matched theregular pit-trading gains. The November contract received thelargest boost, rocketing 16.8 cents to post a final trade of $2.515last night after briefly settling at $2.433 earlier in the day.

At first glance Monday was one of those not-too-often cases inwhich “following the screen” did not apply to the cash market. Butas a Northeastern buyer pointed out, an initially flat futuresshowing allowed many physical-gas markets to post gains of a nickelor so, and by the time the screen got around to diving by about 7cents, it was too late to affect a lot of cash deals. But late cashtrading did reflect the weakness in the Nymex pit, said a producerwho found late Henry Hub and Katy sales down 3-4 cents fromearly-morning levels.

June has ushered a familiar characteristic back into the naturalgas trading pit at Nymex: volatility. Natural gas and volatilityoften are spoken in the same breath. However, for periods thiswinter and spring, the dips and rallies that have drawn manytraders to natural gas have been largely suppressed. But now withsummer clsing in, June has been marked by choppy trading withweather bulls on one side and storage bears on the other. Analystsin the middle are mixed as to who will win the battle, but nearlyeveryone in the market agrees the “V” word is back to stay for awhile.

Cash prices continued going up at most points Wednesday, oftenrepeating Tuesday’s gains of between 3 and 9 cents. Butshell-shocked traders were more interested in discussing what onecalled the “precipitous” drop in May futures and its implicationsfor both April and May cash numbers. “I’d bet a lot of people gotcaught with their pants down” by the screen’s plunge, a marketersaid. Several sources said the Nymex drop caused daily cash dealsdone late to fall.

Although often seen as effective vehicles for achievingcompetition, pilot programs also are being used as a “delayingtactic” by some natural gas and electric utilities that aren’tbullish on the idea of bringing customer choice to their markets, amarketing official charged last week.