Observed

June futures made an initial attempt to rally Tuesday, but market technicians observed that the market failed to breach important resistance areas and prices settled slightly lower. At the close of trading June had eased 0.1 cent to $4.345 and July had shed 0.2 cent to $4.391. July crude oil surged $1.89 to $99.59/bbl.

Forecasts of highs in the 100-degree area across much of the southern third of the U.S. were unimpressive to the cash market Wednesday. Instead, prices observed the 6.2-cent decline by September futures a day earlier and the fading of Tropical Storm Colin in falling by mostly small amounts.

November natural gas futures vaulted higher Monday as traders observed a continuation of the short covering that sent futures bounding higher by 25.2 cents on Friday. The prompt-month contract rose 26.9 cents Monday to close at $4.987 and December advanced 20.1 cents to $5.723. November crude oil rose 46 cents to $70.41/bbl.

June natural gas and crude futures took another break from the upside Wednesday as light profit-taking was observed and traders prepared for what will likely be another bearish natural gas storage report Thursday morning for the week ending May 8. Prompt-month natural gas dropped 11.6 cents to close Wednesday’s regular session at $4.333.

November natural gas futures expired on a strong note Monday as traders observed not only a soaring crude oil market, but also a late-season emergence of tropical weather. November futures settled at $7.269, up 5.1 cents, and the now front-month December contract finished at $7.974, up a stout 16.6 cents. December crude oil gained $1.67 to a record close of $93.53/bbl.

Shell’s Mars platform in the Gulf of Mexico was shut down Saturday after a “sheen [of oil] was observed on the water,” a Shell spokeswoman said. At the time of the shut-in, Mars was producing 150,000 b/d of oil and 170 MMcf/d of gas.

Following a delayed opening as Nymex observed the tragedy of two years prior, natural gas futures dove lower Thursday as Hurricane Isabel took a turn to the northwest and the Energy Information Administration reported a hefty 97 Bcf weekly storage injection. The October contract dipped to $4.685 in the moments following the 11:15 a.m. ET storage report, but then rebounded to close at $4.738, down 23 cents for the session.

As Mark Twain once observed, everybody likes to talk about theweather, and that was especially true in the gas trading communityTuesday. With the official calendar start of winter still more thana month away, it seemed like winter has already begun in almostevery region. The predictable effect was to keep both cash andfutures prices pushing higher, with the screen scaling previouslyunknown heights.

Don’t put your duct tape and plywood away just yet. The lull inthe Atlantic hurricane season finally broke last week with TropicalStorm Bret and Tropical Depression Four throwing a one-two punch tothe gas market and triggering a more than 30-cent jump in NymexHenry Hub futures prices, which broke $3 early on Friday.Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and renowned Colorado State University forecaster Dr.William M. Gray both recently reiterated their predictions that thehurricane season will be a whopper despite the early lull.