Much

“It just goes to show you. This gas market doesn’t make muchsense,” a marketer said. Her comment reflected the chagrin of manytraders Thursday when late-January cash prices tended to firm by upto a nickel instead of falling as generally expected. Most sourceshad been sure Wednesday that the anemic storage withdrawal figurereported by AGA (92 Bcf) would lead to cash softness. Sourcesprofessed to have no clue as to what was propping up prices in theface of no fundamental support, although one suggested the strongFebruary futures close might have given cash a psychological boost.

A major pipeline group last week said there was “much to like”in the notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) that would, among otherthings, expand the blanket construction and abandonment authorityfor pipelines under FERC’s Part 157 regulations, but it also had”several major concerns.”

A major pipeline group last week said there was “much to like”in the notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) that would, among otherthings, expand the blanket construction and abandonment certificateauthority for pipelines under FERC’s Part 157 regulations, but italso had “several major concerns.”

While there’s much commercial and industrial customers likeabout gas unbundling, they still have complaints, according to arecent study. And while marketers are perceived to be moresensitive to customers’ wants and needs than LDCs, utilities arestill favored for gas supply by some.

The screen giveth, and the screen taketh away. Wednesday was aday of taking away much of what had been given to cash prices theday before. As traders continued to play the Hurricane Georgesguessing game (will it or won’t it get close enough to the Gulf ofMexico production area to substantially impact offshore supplies?),quotes were falling across the board but mostly by lesser amountsthan they had risen on Tuesday. With a few exceptions prices werevolatile, with ranges of a dime or more seen at many points.

Triple-digit temperatures throughout much of California inlandfrom the Pacific Coast spurred record energy demand, promptingstate and utility officials to call for voluntary cutbacks inelectricity usage on the eve of the Labor Day holiday weekend.Collectively, August turned out to be California’s hottest ever,further testing the reliability of the new power system in thestate.As Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas and Electricand the nation’s largest municipal utility, the City of Los AngelesDepartment of Water and Power, all registered record power demandMonday, a corresponding record for natural gas delivered toelectric generating plants was marked at Southern California Gas,which transports supplies to all three electric utilities. Gassupplies for power generation equaled 1.92 Bcf/d on Monday,surpassing a one-day record set Aug. 11, 1994 (1.877 Bcf), and aspokesperson for SoCalGas said with the prediction of more hotweather later in the week, “there is a chance we will surpass thenew record.”

It has been a long time since bullish traders have had much tosmile about in the natural gas market. Both fundamentals andtechnicals have exerted their influence on the market for most ofthe summer, and, in doing so, have forced natural gas prices todepths not witnessed since 1995. However, Monday morning traderswere greeted with two potentially bullish developments — onetechnical in nature and the other fundamental — that prompted ashort-covering rally enabling the market to eat away at some oflast week’s price loses. The October contract led the way,advancing 8.8 cents to settle at $1.752 yesterday.

Canadian approvals are expected to fall into place within thenext three months after the U.S. leg of the Alliance PipelineProject earned its environmental seal from FERC last week. “Thisputs us firmly on track,” Alliance spokesman Jay Godfrey said.FERC’s approval of the final environmental impact statement (FEIS)firmed up a schedule that – following a one-year delay due to aprolonged fight before Canada’s National Energy Board – calls forconstruction of the C$3.7-billion (US$2.6-billion), 1.3 Bcf/dpipeline to start next spring. That will be in time for completionand a start on deliveries in the fall of 2000, Godfrey said.

The screen’s drop Tuesday didn’t make much of an impression onthe cash market, which was flat at the majority of points. TheMidcontinent tended to be a little weaker than the average asMidwest citygates were down by almost a nickel after a cold fronthad cooled off the region considerably.